Flash Note BMP – BUY

BMP reported its Q4/2025 business results with NPAT of VND 261 billion (+13.1% YoY and -25.5% QoQ), below our expectations. For full-year 2025, NPAT increased by 24% YoY to VND 1,228 billion, completing 116% of its annual plan and 93.4% of our forecast. We maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of VND 181,600/share by end-2026.
BMP announced its Q4/2025 financial statements with revenue of VND 1,306 billion (+22% YoY) and NPAT of VND 261 billion (+13.1% YoY). Gross margin improved to 46.3% from 42.2% in the same period last year. This positive growth momentum was driven by:
• Maintaining a high total discount-to-revenue ratio of 14.9% compared to 10.6% in Q4/2024, which effectively supported sales volume;
• PVC resin input prices remaining low as Chinese PVC prices continued to decline in Q4/2025 (-10% YoY).
However, compared to the previous quarter, BMP’s revenue and NPAT declined by 16% and 25.5%, respectively, due to the company accelerating sales in Q3/2025.
For full-year 2025, net revenue reached VND 5,601 billion (+19.7% YoY) and NPAT reached VND 1,228 billion (+24% YoY). Sales volume for the full year is estimated to increase by 18% YoY (thanks to higher discount levels), while lower PVC resin input costs and flat average selling prices were the main drivers of this growth.
Regarding financial position, BMP continues to maintain the lowest debt-to-total-assets ratio among industry peers at 1.6%, of which 100% is short-term debt. Together with cash and short-term financial investment accounting for 60.8%, BMP’s debt repayment risk is virtually negligible.
2026 Outlook
The average Chinese PVC resin prices declined by 14.2% in 2025 and are expected to remain low due to China’s weak economic outlook, especially the sluggish real estate sector. In addition, the average Brent oil prices in 2026 are forecast to fall to USD 58/barrel by the EIA and USD 56/barrel by Goldman Sachs, further supporting low PVC prices.
Accordingly, we maintain our 2026 revenue forecast at VND 5,734 billion (+4% YoY) and NPAT at VND 1,424 billion (+16% YoY), driven by low PVC resin input costs and rising demand for plastic pipe products as the domestic real estate sector gradually recovers. Using the discounted cash flow method, we maintain our valuation of BMP at VND 181,600/share by end-2026.