Oil & Gas Sector Report_2H.2026

In 2026, high crude oil prices due to the Middle East conflict are expected to have a divergent impact on the domestic oil and gas industry:

The high oil prices caused by the Middle East conflict have had a positive impact on the business results of oil and gas companies in Q1 2026. Regarding the oil price outlook for 2026, Brent crude oil prices are expected to gradually adjust downwards towards the end of 2026 as the conflict subsides, fluctuating below $90/barrel. This remains a high base compared to the average oil price of 2025, thus creating a divergent outlook for oil and gas companies in 2026. Specifically:

• Upstream: High oil prices are likely to remain high in the medium term due to geopolitical risks that are unlikely to be resolved quickly, creating favorable conditions for the early implementation of upstream projects. In Vietnam, 2026 is a key year for accelerating domestic exploration and production projects to address the issue of dwindling reserves. The biggest growth drivers this year come from the implementation of large-scale projects such as Block B – O Mon and Lac Da Vang. In addition, the utilization rate of jackup drilling rigs in Southeast Asia continues to remain high at around 90%, along with rig day-rate exceeding US$100,000 per day, which are positive factors for upstream businesses.
• Midstream: High oil prices help gas distribution businesses increase revenue and profits. PV GAS expects growth from (1) increased production due to increased gas power generation, and (2) increased gas selling prices. According to Power Development Plan VIII, PV GAS is boosting its liquefied natural gas (LNG) business to compensate for the decline of old gas fields, while preparing infrastructure to be ready to receive gas from Block B from 2027 onwards.
• Downstream: In Vietnam, demand for petroleum products is projected to grow by over 8% per year based on economic growth. However, the Middle East conflict could lead to supply chain disruptions during periods of tension, causing petroleum import costs to increase and profit margins to decrease. In addition, in the case of prolonged high petroleum prices, travel demand may decrease. In addition, the risk of having to make provisions for high-priced inventory also poses a threat to gasoline retailers if oil prices suddenly fall due to an improvement in the conflict situation.