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2Q2026 and 6M2026 business results were positive and exceeded our forecasts, primarily driven by the recognition of bulk sales transactions at the Green Paradise, Ocean Park 2, and Ocean Park 3 projects. We revised up our 2026 NPAT forecast by 45% to VND65.2 trn given higher bulk sales revenue at the Saigon Park and Green Paradise projects. We also raised our end-2026 target price by 15% to VND62,900/share, reflecting a 30% upward revision in 2026 contracted sales and the inclusion of the Global Sportia project in our valuation model. Reiterate NEUTRAL recommendation.
VHM reported positive 2Q2026 business results with revenue of VND52,722bn (+188% YoY) and NPAT of VND26,467bn (+222% YoY). For 1H2026, the company also recorded strong performance with revenue of VND116,565 bn (+243% YoY) and NPAT of VND52,092 bn (+379% YoY), fulfilling 87% of its full-year profit guidance. Growth during the period was mainly driven by:
(1) Handover of key projects: Green Paradise (VND46.2 trn), Ocean Park 2 (VND24.7 trn), and Ocean Park 3 (VND14.3 trn).
(2) Gross Profit Margin (GPM) expansion from 26.4% to 56.6%, driven by an increase in bulk sales revenue contribution to 64% and a relatively high GPM of Green Paradise.
(3) SG&A expenses declined 28% YoY to VND2,366 bn, as bulk sales accounted for ~77% of total contracted sales compared to just ~20% in the same period last year.
In 2Q2026, VHM sold 33,650 units (+1,060% YoY) with contracted sales reaching VND66.4 trn (+104% YoY), primarily coming from the Saigon Park (~VND 35 trn) and Global Gate Ha Long (~VND26.6 trn) projects. For 1H2026, cumulative contracted sales reached VND148.1 trn (+119% YoY), while unbilled sales (backlog) as of end-2Q2026 reached VND196.7 trn (+42% YoY), mostly attributable to Green Paradise, Saigon Park, and Global Gate Ha Long. We have raised our full-year 2026 contracted sales forecast by 30% to VND278 trn following higher-than-expected sales in 1H2026.
According to the company, transactions under the “gold-for-house” exchange program were insignificant, and the company currently faces virtually no exposure to gold price volatility. Regarding the Ben Thanh–Can Gio and Hanoi–Quang Ninh high-speed railway projects, VinSpeed will be responsible for fundraising while VHM will fund the remainder and serve as the EPC contractor. However, as these two railway projects remain in the early stages of implementation with limited detailed information, we have not yet reflected them in our VHM valuation model.
In 1H2026, deposits for investment and commercial purposes surged 61% to ~VND314.3 trn, representing 28% of total assets. Of which, deposits to related parties accounted for ~VND102.3 trn, accounted for 9% of total assets.
Total borrowings rose sharply to fund several mega projects. In 1H2026, total debt increased by over VND69 trn to ~VND 215.5 trn, comprising bank loans (53%) and corporate bonds (45%). Over 48% of total debt carries fixed interest rates, with the remainder at floating rates. Net Debt/Equity rose from 35.9% to 57.1% which was higher than the industry median of 28.9% whereas Net Debt/EBITDA declined from 2.2x to 1.6x which was below the industry median of 1.9x.
