Update HAH – Outperform

HAH reported 3Q2026 revenue of VND1,419bn (+5.3% YoY) and NPAT of VND366bn (+3.7% YoY). For 9M2026, NPAT reached VND1,183.6bn (+13.7% YoY), fulfilling 94.7% of the annual plan and 75% of our full-year forecast. For 2026, we forecast revenue of VND5,431bn (+6.7% YoY) and NPAT of VND1,565bn (+11.7% YoY). In 2027, although container freight rates are expected to decline, HAH’s high share of time-charter (TC) contracts at locked-in rates, together with its strong position in the domestic market, should help limit the impact of market volatility. Accordingly, we forecast 2027 revenue of VND5,409bn (-0.4% YoY) and NPAT of VND1,423bn (-9.1% YoY). Using the DCF method, we value HAH at VND55,000/share.
Shipping remains the key growth driver. In 9M2026, vessel operation revenue reached VND3,370bn (+13% YoY), supported by higher fleet capacity following the commissioning of HAIAN IRIS in October 2025, as well as average container freight rates and TC rates rising by 16% and 5% YoY, respectively. The port segment posted revenue of VND270bn (+7% YoY), with gross margin improving sharply to 32.5% from 18.8% in the same period last year, thanks to higher service tariffs and reduced congestion at Hai An Port. However, consolidated gross margin in 3Q2026 declined to 35.5% as cost of goods sold, particularly fuel costs, grew faster than revenue.
Freight rates are expected to decline in 2027, but HAH is better positioned than the broader market. According to BIMCO, global container fleet capacity is projected to grow by about 9% in 2027, outpacing demand growth and putting pressure on freight and charter rates. Notably, the 1,500–1,999 TEU segment, which coincides with HAH’s core fleet, has a large number of newbuildings on order, intensifying competition over 2027–2029. Nevertheless, HAH is supported by its high share of TC contracts (11 out of 18 owned vessels) with rates locked in for 1–2 years, as well as its leading position in the domestic container shipping market (c.30% market share), a segment reserved for Vietnamese-flagged vessels. We expect these advantages to help HAH sustain better operating performance through the market down cycle.
Fleet expansion to drive growth over 2028–2030. HAH is implementing its largest-ever fleet expansion programme, targeting around 30 vessels by 2030. Total newbuilding capacity amounts to approximately 44,000 TEU, which could more than double the company’s transport capacity upon delivery, concentrated in 2028–2029. The 3,000 TEU vessels will support expansion into longer intra-Asia routes, while the 7,100 TEU vessels open opportunities on international routes or for long-term time charters to major liners. The programme’s substantial capital requirements will be funded largely by long-term debt, with payments made in line with delivery schedules.