KDH Update – BUY

The 9M2026 profit was in line with our forecast and was mainly driven by gains on the divestment of Binh Trung Moi and the acquisition of the An Lap project. We cut our 2027 revenue forecast by 13% to VND4,010 bn and our NPATMI forecast by 21% to VND1,429 bn as we reschedule the delivery of the Binh Trung expansion project from 2027 to 2028 and remove the leasing revenue of the Le Minh Xuan expansion industrial park (IP) because this project is being converted into a social housing project. Our end-2027 target price is adjusted down by 17% to VND19,000/share due to the 10% stock dividend, changes in the planning of some projects, and the addition of the BT and Tan Tao B projects. Reiterate our BUY rating.

The 9M2026 profit mainly came from non-core business. KDH reported revenue of VND483 bn, down 83.1% YoY as only a few low-rise units were delivered at the Gladia project. However, NPATMI doubled YoY to VND1,209 bn, mainly from one-off gains:
1) VND896 bn of financial income from the stake transfer in Binh Trung Moi, of which ~VND22 bn is a gain on the 2% sale, which cut KDH’s stake to 48.95%, while the remaining ~VND875 bn represents earlier gains on the 49% stake sale, reclassified from retained earnings to the P&L.
2) VND285 bn bargain-purchase gain on buying 99% of An Lap for VND2,553 bn.
3) VND129 bn contract-termination compensation.

Adjusting the planning of some projects to adapt to unfavorable market conditions. KDH owns a land bank of over 660 ha in inner HCMC and used to focus on developing mid-end apartments and high-end landed properties. Recently, the company has been adjusting the planning of some projects (An Lap, 11A and Tan Tao A) to increase high-rise products, decrease low-rise products, and expand into the social housing segment (converting the Le Minh Xuan expansion IP into the Le Minh Xuan social housing project with 30,000 units). We believe this strategic shift is appropriate for current real estate market conditions, given the high-interest-rate environment and the government’s support for affordable and social housing, which are in high demand. It will help the company accelerate sales and cash collection. Please see Table 2 for details.

Link to the full report: KDH_Update_13.11.2026