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VHM Update – OUTPERFORM
17/02/2025 - 2:15:21 CHVINHOMES JSC (VHM VN)
Strong growth in 4Q2024 result was driven by 2 bulk sales transactions at Vinhomes Ocean Park 3. Flat 2024 result was in line with our forecast. Adjust 2025 NPAT down by 10% to VND33.8 trn (-4% YoY) and YE2025 target by 15% to VND46,500/share mainly due to decreases in project interest ratios of Vinhomes Global Gate and Vinhomes Apollo City. Change our rating from Buy to Outperform.
VHM posted a strong 4Q2024 result with net revenue of VND33,136 bn (+271% YoY) and NPAT of VND14,104 bn (+630% YoY) mainly thanks to 2 bulk sales transactions at Vinhomes Ocean Park 3 with a total value of VND9.3 trn. Sales performance in 4Q2024 was humble with presales of VND14.4 trn (-62% QoQ and -53% YoY) given most key projects such as Vinhomes Royal Island, Vinhomes Ocean Park 2 & 3 have nearly sold out (i.e. 96%, 99% and 97%, respectively).
VHM posted a flat 2024 result with revenue of VND102 trn (-1% YoY) and NPAT of VND35.1 trn (+5% YoY), completing 100% of profit target and our forecast. Revenue mainly came from Vinhomes Ocean Park 3 (VND29.1 trn), Vinhomes Ocean Park 2 (VND17 trn), Vinhomes Ocean Park (VND9.4 trn) and Vinhomes Golden Avenue (VND4.2 trn). Besides, the company also recorded VND19.2 trn of profit shared from BCC projects which mostly generated from Vinhomes Royal Island. In 2024, VHM sold 12,800 units (-56% YoY) with a total value of VND103.9 trn (+19% YoY), of which, 55% from Vinhomes Royal Island, 19% from Ocean Park 3 and 12% from Ocean Park 2. Backlog at YE2024 was VND94.2 trn (-6% YoY).
In 2025, VHM expected to launch 4 new projects: Vinhomes Apollo City (Ha Long), Wonder City (Dan Phuong), Phuoc Vinh Tay, Duong Kinh and remaining units of current projects. At YE2024, total deposit to VIC and related parties for investment purpose reduced to VND 67.9 trn, a significant decline from VND90.2 tn as of YE2023.
Vinhomes Global Gate (Co Loa, Hanoi): According to an announcement of VEFAC (UPCOM: VEF), VEF is proposing to transfer the entire project at estimated value of VND40 trn. However, profit from this transaction has not been disclosed. Following the transaction of VEF, VHM’s economic interest in Global Gate would be:
(i) Profit sharing as outlined in the cooperation agreement with VEF at Vinhomes Global Gate, where VHM earns 5% of the total project interest,
(ii) Potential dividends from VEF, as VHM holds a 4.66% stake in VEF and
(iii) Fee income from sales and project management services, as the project acquirer inheriting the contracts previously signed between VHM and VEF.
