VHM Update – NEUTRAL

VHM’s 2025 business results recorded strong growth, primarily driven by bulk sales transactions at the Vinhomes Green Paradise project. Due to rising interest rates and tighter government control over credit growth in the real estate sector, we reduced our 2026 contracted sales forecast by 20%, our 2026 NPAT forecast by 7%, and our end-of-2026 target price by 8% to VND 108,500/share. Change our recommendation from Outperform to Neutral.

VHM announced positive 2025 business results with revenue reaching VND154,102 bn (+51% YoY) and NPAT reaching VND42,111 bn (+20% YoY), achieving 100% of its profit plan and 105% of ACBS’s forecast. Revenue mainly came from the Vinhomes Green Paradise project (VND58.3 trn), Ocean Park 2 (VND24 trn), Ocean Park 3 (VND18.2 trn), and Golden City (VND14 trn). Profit shared from BCC projects (primarily from the Royal Island project) decreased by 54% YoY, to VND8,739 bn.

VHM recorded 2025 contracted sales of VND 205.3 trn, double that of 2024, primarily driven by the Green Paradise (~30%), Wonder City (~19%), Golden City (~15%), Royal Island (~14%), and Dream City (~11%) projects. The Vinhomes Green Paradise project in HCMC, covering 2,870 hectares and with a total investment of nearly VND466 trn, is the most prominent project in 2025. The project achieved bulk sales of over VND60 trn in 2025 and recorded approximately 95% of that sales in 4Q2025.

Unbilled revenue by the end of 2025 was at VND186.4 trn, also double that of last year, including projects such as Wonder City (~23%), Royal Island (~19%), Dream City (~12%), and Golden City (~9%).

In 2026, VHM plans to launch the next phases of ongoing projects such as Green Paradise, Golden City, Green City projects, … and possibly new projects such as Hai Van Bay, Quang Hanh, Global Gate Ha Long, etc. With preferential mortgage interest rates for the first 12 months increasing by approximately 2.5-3% from November 2025 to March 2026, and the government tightening credit growth in the real estate sector, we think that the launch of these projects this year may be delayed and the absorption rate may be affected. Furthermore, VHM’s bulk sales are often difficult to project. Therefore, from a cautious perspective, we reduce our 2026 sales forecast by 20% to VND210 trn (+2% YoY).

The company continues to expand its land bank with 3 new projects added in 4Q2025: a 30-hectare project in Hung Yen, a 10,360-hectare project in Cam Lam, Khanh Hoa, and a 1,120-hectare project in Khanh Hoa, bringing the total land bank to nearly 24,600 hectares. Due to a lack of information, we have not yet included the three new projects in our valuation model.