Update VPB – Outperform

We recommend an OUTPERFORM rating for VPB with a 12-month target price of VND 37,000/share. Our valuation is based on (1) target P/E of 9.6x and (2) re-rating potential from the planned IPO of VPBankS. Earnings growth is expected to remain robust, with 2025F +40.0% y/y and 2026F +32.2% y/y, supported by strong credit expansion and stable asset quality.
Q3/25 results were impressive, with PBT reaching VND 9,166bn (+76.7% y/y, +47.5% q/q), driven by solid credit growth, steady asset quality, and a sharp earning growthat VPB’s securities subsidiary, VPBS.
Credit growth accelerated (+39.3% y/y, +28.5% YTD), mainly from housing, real estate, construction, manufacturing, trade, hospitality, and financial services. Lending rates at both VPBank (parent) and Fe Credit remained stable, helping NIM stay flat at 5.7%.
Non-interest income surged +74.6% y/y, boosted by VPBS’s strong proprietary trading (equities and corporate bonds).
Asset quality remained stable despite rising potential risks. NPL ratio fell 46 bps q/q to 3.51%, yet special-mention loans rose 58 bps to 3.61%, and interest collection days extended to 47 (vs. the typical 35–40). In addition, real estate and construction lending expanded rapidly (+33% y/y, +10.3% q/q), increasing VPB’s concentration risk in this sector; hence, upcoming real-estate market developments warrant close monitoring.
Provision expenses grew modestly (+6.8% y/y, +10.6% q/q) thanks to stable asset quality, while NPL coverage slightly improved to 55%.
For 2025, we forecast PBT of VND 28,003bn, up 40.0% y/y (vs. AGM guidance of +25%). In 2026, we expect another +32.2% y/y growth, supported by (1) credit growth of 29.5% y/y, (2) stable NIM at 5.8%, and (3) provisions rising 20.8% y/y.
In Oct 2025, VPBankS is scheduled to launch its IPO, offering 20% of post-issuance shares at VND 33,900/share, with listing expected in December. We believe this valuation is reasonable given current market conditions and expect the IPO to be fully subscribed. Consequently, the successful listing should add VND 3,854/share to VPB’s valuation, raising its target price to VND 37,000/share.