GEG Update – OUTPERFORM

GEG reported Q3/2025 results with VND671 bn in revenue, +24% YoY,  and VND80 bn in NPAT, (Q3/2024: -VND48 bn). Accumulated 9M2025, NPAT achieved VND850 bn, more than 10-fold YoY, fulfilling 124% of the company’s target and 110% of ACBS’s previous 2025 forecast. The strong Q3/2025 results were driven by increases in both output and the average selling price (ASP), leading to improved revenue and enhanced profit margins. We revised up our target price for GEG from VND17,700/share to VND18,400/share, representing a total expected return of 18.7%, rating OUTPERFORM.

Q3/2025 revenue increased by 24% YoY to VND671 bn, driven by growth in both volume and ASP. Output reached 391 mil kWh, +9% YoY and ASP reached VND1,716/kWh, +14% YoY. The ASP increase was primarily attributed to the Tan Phu Dong 1 project, which recognized an official selling price of VND1,813/kWh. This official price is 113% higher than the provisional price recorded in Q3/2024. Therefore, gross profit reached VND322 bn, +36% YoY, and the gross margin expanded to 48% from 44% YoY. Furthermore, attributed to the low general interest rate environment, financial expenses (predominantly interest expenses) decreased by nearly 14% YoY to VND193 bn. This cost reduction contributed significantly to the NPAT of VND80 bn, (Q3/2024: -VND48 bn), achieving NPAT’s margin of 12%.

In 9M2025, output reached nearly 1 bn kWh, -2% YoY. However, revenue achieved VND2,408 bn, +36% YoY, gross profit reached VND1,421 bn, +64% YoY, and NPAT reached VND850 bn, +961% YoY. This substantial NPAT growth was driven by the Tan Phu Dong 1 project’s official electricity price which is 2 times higher than the previous provisional price. The surge in 9M2025 results was driven by the retroactive recognition of the revenue differential in Q1/2025.

Quick Conclusion: GEG achieved strong 9M2025 results, completing 124% of its target and 110% of ACBS’s previous 2025 forecast. We see potential to raise our forecasts and valuation for GEG, expecting continued favorable performance in the coming quarters. This optimism is based on: A gradual reduction in debt, steady improvements in the company’s financial health, and the supportive backdrop of the Government’s policy to promote RE development. Therefore, we raise our target price to VND 18,400/share, rating OUTPERFORM