NLG Update – BUY

NAM LONG INVESTMENT CORPORATION (NLG VN)

Positive 3Q2025 and 9M2025 business results thanks to a higher number of delivered units. Keep our 2025 forecast unchanged. We expect in 4Q2025 NLG will record NPAT of around VND350 bn from a transferring transaction of 15.1% stake in Izumi project to Tokyu Corp and forecast a flat 2026 business result compared to 2025. Roll forward target price to VND47,000/share at YE2026 and change our rating from Outperform to Buy as stock price has adjusted by 13% since our update report on 07/31/2025.

Nam Long posted a positive 3Q2025 business result with revenue of VND1,877 bn (+230% YoY) and NPATMI of VND146 bn (3Q2024: -VND52 bn). The growth was driven by a higher number of delivered units mainly at Southgate and Can Tho projects (3Q2025: 626 units; 3Q2024: 278 units). Gross margin jumped from 34.6% to 44.1% mainly thanks to a higher number of delivered Valora Southgate units. SG&A expenses-to-revenue ratio declined to 21.8% from 44.3% in 3Q2024.

The 9M2025 also followed the same trend with revenue of VND3,941 bn (+376% YoY) and NPATMI of VND354 bn (+2185% YoY), completing 50% of the company’s profit target and our forecast. Growth mainly came from a higher number of delivered units mainly at Can Tho, Southgate, and Akari projects (9M2025: 1,424 units; 9M2024: 539 units). Gross margin remained stable at 39.9% while SG&A expenses-to-revenue ratio declined to 21.7% compared with 59.5% in 9M2024.

Sales activities in 3Q2025 was slightly below our expectation with a contracted value of VND1,740 bn (-38% QoQ and +106% YoY), of which Southgate was the best seller with a sales value of over VND1 trn. Sales value in 9M2025 was nearly VND5.1 trn (+44% YoY), completing only 35% of sales target and 45% of our forecast. However, sales activities is expected to accelerate in 4Q2025 when Izumi Canaria (461 low-rise units) in Izumi project and Solaria Rise zone (ST5 zone with 698 apartments) in Southgate project received sales permits in October and November, 2025 and currently launched.

We keep our estimated 2025 sales value at VND11.2 trn, equivalent to 76% of target. We estimate 4Q2025 revenue at VND2,323 bn (-64% YoY) and NPATMI of VND391 bn (-22% YoY), mainly generated from NPAT of VND350 bn from the transferring transaction of 15.1% stake in Izumi project to Tokyu Corp, which will help NLG complete its targets.

NLG’s leverage ratios dropped in 3Q2025. In 3Q2025, total debts balance was stable at nearly VND7 trn while net debt decreased by VND894 bn to VND1,843 bn. Net debt/Equity ratio decreased from 19.3% to 12.8% and Net debt/EBITDA declined from 1.3x to 0.7x, lower than industry medians of 34.4% and 3.4x, respectively. If NLG successfully completes its rights issue of 100.12 mn shares (equivalent to 26% of outstanding shares) at an offering price of VND25,000/share and sales in 4Q2025 is positive, its leverage ratio will continue to improve at YE2025. The last registration date for the rights issue was 10/20/2025. Time to register to buy and deposit money to buy additional shares is from 10/27/2025 to 11/17/2025.