BSR_Update Q3.2025

Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Joint Stock Company (HOSE)

In Q3.2025, the company achieved revenue of VND 35,290 billion (+10.5% yoy), net profit reached VND 908 billion (negative VND 1,209 billion in the same period). Accumulated in 9 months of 2025, BSR achieved revenue of VND 103,956 billion (+19.4% yoy, completing 90% of the plan), net profit reached VND 2,154 billion (+219% yoy, completing 2.9 times the plan). BSR’s profit improved in Q3.2025, mainly due to two factors: (1) Improved refining profit margin (crack spread), and (2) Increased consumption output.

2026 Outlook: Neutral on Earnings but Positive on Transactions

We forecast 2025 revenue to reach VND139,460 billion (+13.4% yoy) and net profit to VND2,983 billion (+404% yoy). For 2026, revenue is expected to decrease slightly to VND131,791 billion (-5.5% yoy) and net profit to VND2,534 billion (-15% yoy) due to the forecast of Brent oil price falling to USD60/barrel in 2026, leading to a slight decrease in crack spread for gasoline/diesel/jet fuel in 2026.

Using the DCF cash flow discount method, we value BSR with a target price by the end of 2026 of VND 16,550/share. Rating NEUTRAL.