For 2025, BSR achieved revenue of VND 141.57 trillion (+15% yoy, completing 92% annual plan, and 101% of ACBS’s forecast), and net profit of VND 5,189 billion (+722% yoy, completing 240% annual plan, and 173% of ACBS’s forecast). BSR’s profit increased sharply thanks to: improved crack spread and increased production volume.
Production output has increased after the maintenance period, with Dung Quat Refinery maintaining an operating capacity of 120%. Total sales volume for 2025 reached approximately 7.9 million tons (+22% yoy).
Diesel fuel generated the largest revenue and making the main contribution to gross profit. Diesel revenue reached VND 60,819 billion (+17.2% yoy), and gross profit reached VND 6,147 billion (+134% yoy).
We forecast revenue in 2026 to reach VND 154 trillion (+9% yoy) and net profit after tax of VND 5,240 billion (+1% yoy). Profit is expected to only increase slightly as Brent crude oil price is predicted to fall to $64 per barrel in 2026, leading to a slight decrease in crack spreads for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in 2026. Using the DCF cash flow discount method, we value BSR with a target price by the end of 2026 of VND 25.300/share. Rating Neutral.
