VHM Update – OUTPERFORM

A decline in 9M2025 business result was mainly due to a lower number of delivered units, as newly launched projects are still in the sales phase and have not yet entered handover. Notably, 9M2025 presales have already surpassed the full-year base target. We adjust 2025 NPAT up by 4% to VND40,181 bn (+15% YoY) given bulk sales transactions at Vinhomes Green Paradise project is higher than expected. We forecast 2026 NPAT at VND47,891 bn (+19% YoY) and roll forward target price to VND117,700/share at the end of 2026 and reiterate our Outperform rating for this stock.

VHM posted a decline in its 9M2025 result with revenue of VND51,093 bn (-27% YoY) and NPAT of VND15,313 bn (-26% YoY) given a lower number of delivered units. Revenue mainly came from deliveries at Ocean Park 2 (VND8.4 trn) and Ocean Park 3 (VND6.1 trn). Profit shared from BCC projects was recorded at VND6,034 bn (-43% YoY), mainly from Royal Island project.

VHM set a very ambitious 2025 sales value target of VND150-200 trn which is 44-92% higher than its 2024 result as it expects to launch 5 new projects (Wonder City, Green City, Golden City, Green Paradise and Lang Van). Sales value in 9M2025 surpassed the base target and grew by 96% YoY, to VND162.6 trn mainly thanks to the official launch of Wonder City in March, Green City and Golden City in June and bulk sales transactions at Vinhomes Green Paradise in 3Q2025. We increase our forecast for 2025 sales value by 32% to VND198 trn (+90% YoY) mainly from Green Paradise, Wonder City, Green City, Golden City, and projects. Unbilled sales at the end of 3Q2025 were VND223.9 trn (+93% YoY), of which Green Paradise accounted for 29%.

We think the 4Q2025 will be much better compared to the same period of last year with estimated revenue of VND92,480 bn (+185% YoY) and NPAT of VND24,868 bn (+72% YoY) as the company will recognize the majority of bulk sales value at Vinhomes Green Paradise as well as some bulk sales transactions at Green City and deliver retail units at Royal Island, OP2, OP3 and Golden Avenue.

Leverage ratios increased in 3Q2025. In 3Q2025, total debt balance increased by VND51,088 bn, to VND141,490 bn and net debt jumped to VND90,605 bn (+92% YTD) as the company need more capital to develop new projects such as Vinhomes Green Paradise. Thus, in 9M2025, Net debt/Equity rose from 21.3% to 38.6% and Net debt/EBITDA from 1.8x to 5.0x, which are higher than the industry median of 34.4% and 3.4x, respectively.

We adjust 2025 NPAT up by 4% to VND40,181 bn (+15% YoY) given bulk sales transactions at Vinhomes Green Paradise project is higher than expected. We forecast a double-digit growth in 2026 with NPAT of VND47,891 bn (+19% YoY) mainly thanks to deliveries at Vinhomes Green Paradise, Wonder City, Green City and Golden City projects. We roll forward target price to VND117,700/share at the end of 2026 and reiterate our Outperform rating for this stock.