Nhon Trach 2 Thermal Power JSC (HoSE: NT2)

NT2 reported Q4/2025 results with VND2,367 bn in revenue, +33% YoY, and VND423 bn in NPAT, +464% YoY. For 2025, NPAT reached VND1,000 bn, 12 times YoY growth, equivalent to 358% of the 2025 company’s plan and 131% of ACBS’s forecast. The strong earnings performance was primarily driven by +13% YoY in the average electricity selling price (ASP) in Q4/2025 and +16% YoY for the full year, largely attributable to +57% YoY in contracted output (Qc), reaching nearly 3.5 bn kWh in 2025. In addition, NT2 recorded VND91 bn in forest environmental service fee revenue in Q4/2025 and reduced depreciation expenses by VND132 bn YoY. We raise our 2026 target price from VND21,700/share to VND24,400/share, implying a total expected return of 1.8%, rating NEUTRAL.

Q4/2025 revenue +33% YoY to VND2,367 bn, supported by both higher output and higher ASP. Specifically, output in Q4/2025 reached 962 mil kWh, +17% YoY, while the ASP +13% YoY to VND2,460/kWh. The improvement in both volume and pricing was mainly driven by higher Qc. Additionally, NT2 recognized VND91 bn in revenue from forest environmental service fees and reduced depreciation expenses by VND132 bn YoY, contributing to revenue growth and a significant improvement in gross margin to 20%, compared to 5% in Q4/2024. As a result, gross profit reached VND478 bn, and NPAT reached VND423 bn. Both recorded 5 times Yoy growth. NPAT’s margin also expanded sharply from 4% in Q4/2024 to 18% in Q4/2025.

For 2025, NT2 recorded revenue of VND7,803 bn, +31% YoY. Gross profit reached VND1,093 bn, up 20x YoY, while NPAT amounted to VND1,000 billion, 12 times YoY growth. NPAT’s margin improved substantially to 13%, compared with 1% in 2024.

Quick conclusion: NT2 delivered a strong 2025 performance, achieving 358% of its target and 131% of ACBS’s forecast, primarily driven by higher Qc, which in turn supported an increase in the ASP. This occurred despite strong hydro-electric generation in 2025, which led to a 20% YoY decline in the FMP. We expect the key positive factors supporting NT2’s performance in 2025 to continue into 2026, with the company also expected to recognize an additional VND177 bn in foreign exchange gains in 2026. Accordingly, we revise up our target price to VND 24,400/share, implying a total expected return of 1.8%, rating NEUTRAL.