POW Update – OUTPERFORM

POW announced Q4/2025 results VND8,747 bn in revenue, +2% YoY, and NPAT of VND688 bn, +588% YoY. For 2025, NPAT reached VND2,869 bn, +137% YoY, equivalent to 654% of the company’s plan and 126% of ACBS’s 2025 forecast. The strong 2025 performance was primarily driven by higher hydropower output with lower dispatch costs, +39% YoY, and +38% YoY in contracted capacity (Qc), which lifted the average electricity selling price (ASP), reduced overall dispatch costs, and improved profit margins. We set a target price for POW at VND16,900/share, implying a total expected return of 17.5%, rating OUTPERFORM.

In Q4/2025, POW delivered 4.4 bn kWh output, -5% YoY, while revenue +2% YoY to VND8,747 bn. Thermal output declined sharply, particularly at Vung Ang 1 (VA1), which recorded 1.2 bn kWh, -17% YoY, and Ca Mau 1&2 (CM1&2), which generated 1.5 bn kWh, -13% YoY. In contrast, hydropower output increased by 32% YoY, driven by Dakdrinh, Hua Na, and Nam Mu plants, reaching 516 mil kWh. In addition, Qc output +25% YoY, contributing to a 6% YoY increase in ASP, which reached VND1,889/kWh. As a result, gross margin improved to 12%, compared to 7% in Q4/2024, driving gross profit to VND4,328 bn, +79% YoY. NPAT reached VND688 bn, with NPAT’s margin expanding from 1% in Q4/2024 to 8% in Q4/2025.

For 2025, total output (excluding NT3&4) reached 17.4 bn kWh, +8% YoY. Revenue amounted to VND34,151 bn, +13% YoY, while gross profit surged to VND4,328 bn, +117% YoY. This improvement was mainly attributable to +38% YoY in Qc and +39% YoY in hydropower dispatch. Accordingly, ASP increased 4% YoY to VND1,934/kWh. NPAT reached VND2,869 bn, +137% YoY, with NPAT’s margin improving from 4% in 2024 to 8% in 2025.