HDG Update

• 2Q2026: Revenue reached VND486 bn, -18% YoY, while NPAT totaled VND104 bn, +285% YoY, slightly below our forecast.
• 6M2026: NPAT reached VND207 bn, -12% YoY, completing 18% of the company’s target and 23% of ACBS’s 2026 forecast. The company achieved only 23% of our forecast, primarily due to VND243 bn provisions recognized for two solar power projects that were found to have regulatory violations during the COD process. We expect HDG to recognize an additional VND25 bn provisions in Q3/2026 for the Hong Phong 4 solar power project, pending the final regulatory decision.
• We revise down 2026 NPAT forecast from VND890 bn to VND784 bn, -12% from previous estimate, reflecting concerns that the impact of the approaching El Niño cycle on hydropower generation could be more severe than previously anticipated. Accordingly, we lower 2026 target price for HDG from VND26,100/share to VND24,000/share, -8% from previous target price, implying a total expected return of 45.0%, rating BUY.

Q2/2026: NPAT +285% YoY as foreign exchange losses were no longer recognized.

• Revenue from the energy segment -19% YoY to VND380 bn, mainly due to lower hydropower generation, which fell to 184 mil kWh, -24% YoY. Consequently, total revenue -18% YoY to VND486 bn.
• Despite lower revenue, NPAT +285% YoY to VND104 bn, as the company no longer recognized the approximately VND100 bn foreign exchange loss related to the EUR-denominated loan for the 7A wind project, which had been recorded in Q2/2025.

Cumulative 6M2026:

Revenue reached VND1,170 bn, -2% YoY, while NPAT totaled VND234 bn, -12% YoY, primarily due to VND243 bn provisions recognized by HDG. This included VND193 bn provided in Q1/2026 for the Infra 1 solar power, representing the difference between the transitioning RE tariff and the FIT1 for the period from COD (Sep 2020) to the signing of the CCA in Feb 2023, as well as an additional VND50 bn provision for the Hong Phong 4 solar power, pending the final regulatory decision expected in Q3/2026.