GMD Update – NEUTRAL

GMD reported strong 1H2026 earnings, driven by higher port throughput and service rates, alongside a one-off gain from the equity swap transaction with CJ. We expect the growth outlook to remain supported by rising production and export demand, Gemalink Phase 2, and a potential recovery at Nam Dinh Vu Port in 2H2026. Accordingly, we raise our 2026F PAT by 22% to VND3,146bn (+41.5% YoY) to reflect this one-off gain. Our target price is VND78,400/share, implying 1.3% upside from the current price. We maintain our NEUTRAL recommendation.
Strong 1H2026 earnings growth. Revenue and NPAT increased 16% and 71% YoY, respectively, achieving 80% of the full-year PBT target and 61% of our forecast. The strong performance was primarily driven by (1) an 8% YoY increase in container throughput, (2) a 10% increase in handling service rates from February 2026, and (3) a VND608bn gain from the equity swap transaction with CJ Logistics.
Gemalink Phase 2 to support long-term growth. Gemalink remained a key growth driver, with 1H2026 profit reaching VND532bn (+67% YoY), supported by a 23% YoY increase in throughput volumet. Phase 2 broke ground in April 2026 and is expected to commence operations in 4Q2027, increasing Gemalink’s total capacity across Phases 1 and 2 to approximately 3mn TEUs/year. We expect the project to enable GMD to capture rising container throughput in the Cai Mep–Thi Vai area, increase its capacity to handle larger mother vessels, and strengthen Gemalink’s competitive position among deep-water ports, thereby supporting revenue and earnings growth over the medium to long term.
Nam Dinh Vu expected to recover in 2H2026. Alongside Gemalink, we expect Nam Dinh Vu to be a key area of improvement in 2H2026. Throughput at the port declined 9% YoY in 1H2026 due to competitive pressure from deep-water ports in Lach Huyen. However, we expect throughput to recover in 2H2026 following the addition of new services. The port added two Hapag-Lloyd services from June 2026 and could attract another 2–3 services in the remaining months of the year. In addition, its favorable location, competitive operating costs, and GMD’s integrated logistics ecosystem should continue to support Nam Dinh Vu in the intra-Asia segment.
2026F NPAT raised on one-off gain. We maintain our 2026F revenue forecast at VND6,610bn (+11.2% YoY) and raise our NPAT forecast to VND3,146bn (+41.5% YoY), up 22% from our previous forecast, mainly reflecting the VND608bn gain from the restructuring transaction with CJ. For 2027, we forecast PAT at VND2,815bn (-11% YoY), primarily due to the absence of the one-off gain recognized in 2026.