Báo cáo chiến lược 2022 - Acbs
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Báo cáo chiến lược 2022

24/03/2022 - 4:43:12 CH
Báo cáo chiến lược 2022 ACBS (VIE).pdf
Vietnam Strategy 2022 by ACBS (ENG).pdf

Where is the growth potential for Vietnam in 2022?

2021 was another challenging year for Vietnam in dealing with the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, especially during the 3rd quarter which saw stringent lockdowns to slow the spread of the virus. 2021 GDP growth reached 2.58%, the lowest rate since ‘doi moi’, or the economic liberalization of the country in 1986, and saw a contraction of 6.02% in 3Q2021 during the worst of the lockdowns. In the 4th quarter, as vaccination rates reached heard immunity levels, Vietnam switched to a “living with COVID” strategy which saw the economy return to growth and positioned to return to a new normal in 2022. 2021 Inflation remained in check at just 1.84%, far below the 4% target thanks to decreasing foods price such as pork.

In 2022, we believe consumption will pick up again following a long period of social distancing. Manufacturing activities resume with higher productivity to fill up the inventory gap, boosting import-export. We expect CPI in 2022 will not enjoy the low level of 2021 and will be under upward pressure from (1) recent escalating oil price boosted by the resumption of production post COVID-19 and sanctions affecting oil output and exports as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine; and (2) retail gas price increases in line with global oil prices. However, we expect Vietnam’s CPI to remain below the Government’s 4% target in 2022 supported by (1) stabilized grain food and foodstuff prices when transportation and supply chains of goods are normalized in 2022; (2) food & foodstuffs will not face shortages due to surging demand, supply chain disruptions or low production in 2022 and (3) size of stimulus package is relatively small (~3% of the total money supply, and ~4% GDP of 2021). 

Despite the negative impact of COVID-19, 2021 was a record year for the Vietnam equity market with the VN-Index to jump by 35.7%, ending the year at 1,498.3. The VN-Index peak at 1,500.8 points on Nov 25th 2021. From an avg. liquidity of VND6,254.1bn in 2020, the index liquidity surged three-fold to an avg. of VND20,027.0bn (USD871mn), reaching the highest level in mid-Nov at VND43,141.5bn (USD1.9bn). The number of new accounts trading also soared: from 2.8mn of securities accounts by the end of 2020, the total securities accounts in Vietnam reached 4.3mn by the end of 2021, with an impressive surge in Nov and Dec 2021 by over 220,000 new accounts opened/month, most of it are domestic retail investors. For 2022, we expect retail flows to continue to be strong and the proliferation of domestic fund management will lead to a more sustainable and less volatile market. With key rates expected to rise at central banks across the developed markets, frontier and emerging markets such as Vietnam will become more attractive with higher potential return, boosting foreign capital flows to flow back into Vietnam in 2022. 

View details in attachment below.

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