BCM Update – OUTPERFORM

INVESTMENT AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION (HSX: BCM)

Positive 9M2025 results are mainly thanks to strong growth in the residential real estate segment and profit shared from the joint venture VSIP. We maintain our 2025 forecast and expect the company to achieve double-digit growth in 2026 as the residential and industrial real estate segments continue to recover. We roll forward our target price to VND77,400/share at the end of 2026 and maintain our Outperform rating.

BCM recorded mixed 3Q2025 results with revenue down 33% YoY to VND829 bn while NPAT up 16% YoY to VND422 bn. Revenue decreased mainly due to lower real estate area delivered, reaching VND461 bn (-44% YoY), accounting for more than half of total revenue. Net profit increased mainly thanks to profits shared from joint ventures and associates (mainly from VSIP) increasing by 118% YoY, reaching VND530 bn.

In 9M2025, BCM achieved positive business results with revenue reaching VND5,201 bn (+62% YoY) and NPAT reaching VND2,269 bn (+195% YoY), completing 92% of the company’s profit target and 77% of ACBS’s forecast. We maintain BCM’s forecast for 2025 with estimated revenue of VND7,118 bn (+36% YoY) and NPAT reaching VND2,953 bn (+23% YoY).

BCM’s leverage ratio improved slightly in 9M2025 but remained significantly higher than the industry median. Total debt decreased by VND1,389 bn to VND22,239 bn. Net debt/Equity ratio decreased from 102.1% to 90.8%, higher than the industry median of -11.5%. Net debt/EBITDA ratio decreased from 10.3x to 6.2x, higher than the industry median of -0.7x.

BCM did not receive approval from its major shareholders for the plan to issue 150 mn shares (equivalent to 14.5% of outstanding shares) through public auction with a starting price of VND50,000/share. Therefore, the company must continuously issue bonds to restructure capital for large projects. Since August 2025, the company has continuously issued bonds with a total value of VND2,500 bn. In 4Q2025, BCM also plans to issue up to VND2,000 bn in private bonds. We project that the company’s leverage ratio will fluctuate around 100% in the period 2025-2026.

Overall, the outlook for the industrial park (IP) real estate segment has improved and Vietnam’s competitive advantages (stable political situation, competitive production costs, high number of signed FTAs) are expected to continue to enhance Vietnam’s FDI attractiveness in the long term despite short-term difficulties. The framework agreement between the US and Vietnam was announced in late October 2025 and the tax rate remains the same as that announced in late July 2025, much better than the rate announced in early April 2025 and equivalent to neighboring countries. Registered FDI in 10M2025 increased by 15.6% YoY to USD31.5 bn and disbursed FDI increased to USD21.3 bn (+8.8% YoY), the highest level in the past 5 years.

We expect the company to achieve double-digit growth in 2026 as the residential real estate segment (mainly wholesale of land lots in Binh Duong New City) and industrial park segment (mainly from VSIP joint venture) continue to recover with estimated revenue of VND7,861 billion (+10% yoy) and net profit of VND3,426 billion (+16% yoy). Roll forward the target price to end-2026 at VND77,400/share and maintain our Outperform recommendation.