DPM Flash Note – OUTPERFORM

DPM announced Q3/2025 business results with NPAT of VND239 billion (+259% YoY and -42% QoQ), in line with our expectations. For 9M2025, cumulative NPAT rose by 51.4% YoY to VND863 billion, completing 269% of the company full-year plan and 73% of our forecast. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of VND27,200/share for 2026, implying 17.7% upside potential.

DPM released its Q3/2025 financial statements with revenue of VND3,728 billion (+21.1% YoY) and NPAT of VND239 billion (+259% YoY). The gross profit margin improved to 19.3% from 11.7% in the same period last year. With urea sales volume up by 0.5% YoY to 185 thousand tons, revenue and profit growth were mainly driven by:

• Average urea selling prices is estimated to have increased by 17% YoY, while input gas prices declined thanks to a 13.7% YoY drop in Brent crude prices, resulting in a gross margin of 19.3%.
• Revenue from imported fertilizer trading continued to surge, up 150% YoY.

These positive developments offset the negative impacts from financial income, which declined by 26.3% YoY to VND117 billion due to lower interest income, and from financial expenses, which rose by 76% YoY to VND45 billion as interest expense increased. SG&A expenses rose by 10.4% YoY to VND440 billion; however, the SG&A-to-revenue ratio fell from 12.9% to 11.8% compared to the same period last year.

For 9M2025, net revenue reached VND13,150 billion (+27.3% YoY) and NPAT achieved VND863 billion (+51.4% YoY). Urea sales volume remained stable at 687 thousand tons. The improvement was mainly supported by higher urea prices and lower input gas costs.

Outlook

For sales volume, as DPM plans to conduct its 12th major maintenance in Q4/2025 for 45 days, annual urea sales volume is expected to decline by 9% YoY. Meanwhile, although urea selling prices dropped by about 4% MoM in September due to sluggish domestic demand, prices are expected to remain high throughout 2025–2026 as Chinese fertilizer producers are still subject to export quotas and cannot export freely. In addition, with the low oil price outlook driven by OPEC+ increasing production, input gas prices are expected to continue supporting DPM’s business performance.

We forecast DPM’s 2025 revenue to reach VND 15,448 billion (+14.5% YoY) and net profit (NPAT) to reach VND1,188 billion (+114% YoY). For 2026, we project revenue at VND16,726 billion (+8% YoY) and NPAT at VND1,289 billion (+8.6% YoY), supported by low oil prices and a recovery in sales volume as there will be no maintenance that year.