GMD Update – NEUTRAL

Gemadept reported strong Q1/2026 results, with NPAT reaching VND650 billion (+23.2% YoY), fulfilling 26% of the company full-year target and 25% of ACBS’s forecast. FY2026 NPAT is expected to maintain solid growth of 15.5% YoY, supported by higher handling service charge. We maintain our target price of VND77,100/share for end-2026 with a NEUTRAL rating.
GMD posted Q1/2026 revenue of VND1,452 billion (+13.7% YoY) and NPAT of VND650 billion (+23.2% YoY). The growth was mainly driven by:
• Port revenue increasing 12.7% YoY, supported by strong container throughput growth of 12% YoY at Southern ports and 30% YoY at Central ports, while Northern ports declined 8% YoY.
• The logistics segment also recorded revenue growth of 22.4% YoY, with gross margin improving to 44.2% from 43.3% in the same period last year.
• Profit from associates and joint ventures rising 39% YoY, notably driven by the deep-water port Gemalink, whose earnings grew 46% YoY thanks to a 19% YoY increase in throughput and a 10% hike in container handling service charge from February 2026.
• Financial income doubling to VND60 billion, mainly due to a 137% YoY increase in deposit interest income, while financial expenses grew at a slower pace (+48% YoY).
These positive factors offset:
• A slight decline in gross margin of the port segment from 44.1% to 43.8%, due to an 8% YoY drop in container throughput at Nam Dinh Vu Port, despite Phase 3 commencing operations in late September 2025.
• SG&A expenses increasing 17.9% YoY, causing the SG&A-to-revenue ratio to rise from 16.5% in the same period last year to 17.1%.
Positive outlook
Overall, escalating tensions in the Middle East have had an insignificant impact on the container shipping market, as total container throughput at Vietnamese ports continued to post solid growth, exceeding 6 million TEUs (+12% YoY). Free trade agreements (FTAs), policies aimed at attracting FDI inflows, and the ongoing manufacturing shift away from China are expected to continue supporting this market.
Regarding Nam Dinh Vu Port, container throughput is expected to gradually improve in the coming quarters, driven by recovering container shipping demand and the approaching peak season. In addition, the 10% increase in handling service charge for deep-water ports from February 2026 is expected to positively support Gemalink. With that, we maintain our 2026 forecast for Gemadept, projecting revenue of VND6,610 billion (+11.2% YoY) and NPAT of VND2,568 billion (+15.5% YoY). Using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, we derive a target price at VND77,100/share for end-2026.