KDH – Flash note – OUTPERFORM

KHANG DIEN HOUSE TRADING AND INVESTMENT JSC (KDH VN)

Impressive 3Q2025 business results were higher than our estimation as the Gladia project was recognized earlier than expected. We keep our 2025 and 2026 forecast unchanged. We roll forward our target price to YE2026 at VND39,500/share and reiterate our Outperform rating for KDH.

KDH recorded very impressive 3Q2025 results with net revenue of VND1,098 bn (up by over 4 times YoY) and NPAT of VND526 bn (up by 8 times YoY), higher than our estimation as the Gladia project (11.8 ha in HCMC with 226 low-rise units and 616 high-rise units with ASP of the low-rise component from VND228mn/sqm which was launched in September, 2025) was delivered in September which was earlier than our expectation.
Cummulatively,9M2025 results were also positive with net revenue of VND2,857 bn (+132% YoY) and NPAT of VND841 bn (+105% YoY), completing 84% of KDH’s profit target and 83% of our forecast. Growth mainly came from deliveries of remaining units at the Privia project in 1H2025 and the Gladia project in 3Q2025. Gross margin declined to 52.0% compared with 67.6% in 9M2024 given lower margin of the Privia project compared with that of the Classia.
In October, 2025, KDH received the Approval of Investment in Principle for the Binh Trung Dong expansion project (18.4 ha next to the Gladia project). Thus, we revaluate this project up by 30% to VND10 trn to reflect legal progress and rising market price in the area in the last 3 months.
Leverage ratios increased. During 9M2025, total debts increased by nearly VND2.8 trn, to nearly VND9.9 trn, of which bank loans accounted for 100%. Net debt/Equity ratio increased from 19.2% to 35.3%, similar to the industry median of 34.6%. Net debt/EBITDA rose from 2.8x to 3.9x, lower than the industry average of 8.3x.
Overall, KDH’s outlook is supported by limited supply of low-rise projects in the old HCMC, improved surrounding infrastructure projects (e.g. upgrade of My Thuy and An Phu intersections, Ring Road 3, Long Thanh- Dau Giay expansion) and the rise of the middle class which spurs high need for secondary/leisure houses. We keep 2025 NPAT at VND1,012 bn (+26% YoY) and 2026 NPAT at VND1,782 bn (+76% YoY). We roll forward target price to YE2026 at VND39,500/share and reiterate our Outperform rating for KDH.