NT2 Update – BUY

• NT2 reported positive business results in Q3/2026, with NPAT reaching VND419 bn, +96% YoY. Cumulative 9M2026 NPAT reached VND906 bn, +57% YoY, equivalent to 211% of the plan and 108% of ACBS’s 2026 forecast.
• The strong 9M2026 earnings was driven by a 53% YoY increase in output, largely attributable to higher allocated contracted output (Qc), a 78% YoY reduction in depreciation expenses, and a 92% YoY increase in financial income.
• The company has yet to recognize an additional VND177 bn in foreign exchange gains during the period.
• We set a 2027 target price of VND28,100/share for NT2, implying an expected total return of 22.4%, rating BUY.

Q3/2026’s Performance

Output reached 1.2 bn kWh, +47% YoY, while the average selling price (ASP) declined by 1% YoY to VND2,418/kWh. Nevertheless, the gross margin improved, contributing to revenue of VND2,807 bn, +46% YoY. NPAT increased by 96% YoY to VND419 bn, supported by lower depreciation expenses (-78% YoY) and labor costs (-6% YoY), as well as higher financial income from bank deposit interest (+88% YoY).

Cumulative 9M2026

9M2026 performance was broadly consistent with the results recorded in Q3/2026. Revenue reached VND7,804 bn, +44% YoY, while NPAT totaled VND906 bn, +57% YoY. The results were primarily driven by a 53% YoY increase in output to 3.3 bn kWh, a 78% YoY reduction in depreciation expenses, and a 92% YoY increase in financial income from bank deposit interest. These factors offset a 58% YoY increase in raw material costs, which totaled VND6,190 bn.

NT2’s 9M2026 results exceeded our estimates in the latest update report, supported by higher-than-forecast Qc, driven by strong nationwide electricity demand and favorable El Niño conditions. Accordingly, we forecast NT2 will continue to generate nearly 1.0 bn kWh in Q4/2026. For 2026, we project output of 4.2 bn kWh, +36% YoY, revenue of VND10,040 bn, +26% YoY, and NPAT of VND1,591 bn, +41% YoY.

For 2027, we forecast NPAT of VND1,306 bn, -18% YoY, as NT2 is highly likely to undergo a major overhaul during the year. We set a 2027 target price of VND28,100/share, implying an expected total return of 22.4%, rating BUY.