NTC Flash note – OUTPERFORM

NTC recorded positive 2Q2026 profit, mainly driven by a sharp increase in financial revenue. However, 1H2026 profit still saw a slight YoY decline, primary due to an accounting change for industrial land lease revenues from one-off recognition to annual allocation. We maintain our 2026 forecast and OUTPERFORM recommendation with a year-end 2026 target price of VND147,400/share.

NTC announced mixed 2Q2026 financial results, with net revenue dropping 43% YoY to VND82 bn, while net profit after tax (NPAT) surged 32% YoY to VND132 bn. The revenue decline was attributable to the application of Circular 99 which leads to the change in accounting method for industrial land lease revenue from one-off recognition to annual allocation. The profit growth was driven by a threefold YoY surge in financial revenue to VND121 bn, primarily derived from dividends received from Sai Gon VRG Investment JSC (HOSE: SIP).

1H2026 business performance declined, with revenue reaching VND164 bn (-41% YoY) and profit before tax (PBT) reaching VND188 bn (-8% YoY), completing 69% of the company’s 2026 profit target and 47% of ACBS’s forecast. The decline during the period was mainly caused by the aforementioned change in revenue accounting method.

Under the new regulations, industrial park developers must fully complete infrastructure before being allowed to lease land. Consequently, official leasing progress at Nam Tan Uyen 3 Industrial Park reached only 6 hectares in 1H2026. However, the company has signed MOUs for over 20 hectares with customers. Official contracts are expected to be signed by July or August, following the completion of infrastructure and environmental acceptance inspections. The current land lease rate at this industrial park is approximately USD185/sqm for the remaining lease term.

The company’s financial position remains positive. As of the end of June 2026, NTC carried no interest-bearing debt. Cash and cash equivalents exceeded VND1,300 bn, accounting for nearly one-fifth of total assets. In 1H2026, the Net Cash/Equity ratio increased from 29.6% to 91.3%, while Net Cash/EBITDA rose from 1.5x to 8.0x.

Quick comment: We maintain our 2026 forecast, with estimated revenue of VND515 bn (-28% YoY) and estimated NPAT of VND335 bn (+4% YoY). We maintain our OUTPERFORM recommendation with a target price of VND 147,400/share by the end of 2026.