Vietnam Market Outlook | April 2022 - Acbs
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Vietnam Market Outlook | April 2022

12/04/2022 - 10:58:17 SA
ACBS - Trien Vong Thi Truong Viet Nam Thang 04 2022.pdf
ACBS - Vietnam Market Outlook April 2022.pdf

Strong Q1 macro figures set the stage for continued growth in 2022

Macro Outlook

Overall, we expect the GDP growth for 2022 to range between 5.8% – 6.9%. Despite many concern of recent events which could slow our growth prospects in the rest of 2022, we still maintain our expectation that GDP growth rate will gradually recover in the last three quarters of 2022 with supported by:

  1. The continuing recovery of all industrial activities after switching from zero-COVID-19 strategy to living-with-COVID-19 strategy in major economic & industrial areas.
  2. The recovery of service sector after relaxing COVID restrictions which affect the majority of service businesses coming from (1) improvement of domestic consumption after COVID-19 contained, (2) reopening international tourism and (3) normalization of transportation of goods help push trading activities especially export from FDI sector.

We slightly revised our expectation of CPI for 2022 will increase in range of 3.5% – 4% (vs 3% – 3.5% at the beginning of the year) and remain within Government’s target of 4%. The most risk in current is inflation storm globally can put pressure to Vietnam. However, we expected that upward pressure will be offset or partly offset by:

  1. Food & catering services sector, especially food prices, will be less volatile as pork production resumed as ASF outbreaks have been contained and other food & foodstuffs will not in supply shortage due to surging demand or supply chain disruptions or low production;
  2. Oil prices are expected to be stable in 2H2022 as supply and demand will match after production of oil after COVID-19 catch up, and geopolitical tensions at the Russia-Ukraine border ended. In addition, we also expected that retail gasoline price will be stable in 2H2022 too.
See details in the attachment below.

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