GEG Flash Note – BUY

• Q2/2026’s result: Revenue reached VND580 bn, -7% YoY, while NPAT came in at VND8 bn, -95% YoY, broadly in line with our forecast.
• 6M2026 results: NPAT totaled VND272 bn, -65% YoY, fulfilling 72% of the company’s targeg and 51% of ACBS’s forecast for 2026. The 6M2026 results were in line with our expectations. We had already factored in the YoY earnings decline, primarily due to the absence of the VND144 bn gain recognized in Q2/2025 from the divestment of Truong Phu Hydropower JSC (TPH), as well as the absence of the retroactive revenue recognized in Q1/2025 from the Tan Phu Dong 1 (TPD1) project following the successful negotiation of the official power tariff.
• Accordingly, we maintain our GEG’s 2026 target price of VND17,500/share (ex-dividend adjustment), implying a total expected return of 43.4%, rating BUY.

Q2/2026: Lower wind power output weighed on revenue and gross margin, while higher interest expenses eroded earnings.

• Generation by segment was as follows: Hydro: 43 mil kWh, +13% YoY; Solar: 268 mil kWh, +8% YoY; Wind: 238 mil kWh, -17% YoY. Consequently, revenue declined 7% YoY to VND580 bn, mainly due to lower wind power generation, which generates the highest revenue per kWh. Gross profit reached VND237 bn, -13% YoY, while the gross margin narrowed from 44% in Q2/2025 to 41% in Q2/2026.
• NPAT fell sharply to VND8 bn, -95% YoY, primarily due to the absence of the VND144 bn gain from the divestment of TPH in Q2/2025, together with +16% YoY in interest expenses as GEG increased borrowings to finance the Duc Hue 2 solar power project, which achieved commercial operation (COD) in Q2/2026.

Cumulative 6M2026:

• Ouput reached 616 mil kWh, +2% YoY, supported by +10% YoY in solar power to 219 mil kWh. Revenue amounted to VND4,470 bn, -51% YoY, mainly due to the absence of the retroactive revenue recognized from the TPD1 project in Q1/2025. Gross profit totaled VND724 bn, -34% YoY.
• NPAT was VND272 bn, -65% YoY, driven by the factors discussed above.

Quick conclusion: GEG’s 6M2026 earnings declined significantly YoY, completing 72% of the company’s target and 51% of ACBS’s forecast for 2026. Overall, the results were in line with our 2026’s expectations. We therefore maintain our 2026 target price of VND17,500/share, implying a total expected return of 43.4%, rating BUY.