QTP Update – BUY

• QTP reported positive business results in Q3/2026. Consequently, 9M2026 NPAT reached VND600 bn, +52% YoY, equivalent to 187% of the plan and 163% of ACBS’s forecast for 2026.
• The positive 9M2026 performance was primarily attributable to a strong 14% YoY increase in output, largely driven by higher contracted output (Qc), a 20% YoY reduction in depreciation expenses, and an increase in financial income.
• The emissions treatment system renovation and upgrade project is highly likely to be postponed until 2027, allowing QTP to maximize generation and supply during the peak El Niño period toward the end of 2026. This delay is expected to benefit QTP’s 2026 earnings.
• We set a 2027 target price of VND14,800/share for QTP, implying an expected total return of 39.7%, rating BUY.

Q3/2026’s Performance

Output reached 1.6 bn kWh, +52% YoY. However, the average selling price (ASP)declined by 10% YoY to VND1,716/kWh. Consequently, Q3/2026 revenue increased by only 37% YoY to VND2,815 bn. Although QTP recorded a 44% YoY increase in raw material costs, primarily due to higher coal prices, lower labor costs (-19% YoY) and depreciation expenses (-23% YoY) helped offset the increase. As a result, NPAT rose by 130% YoY to VND76 bn.

Cumulative 9M2026

QTP’s 9M2026 earnings was broadly consistent with the trends observed in Q3/2026. Revenue reached VND9,174 bn, +17% YoY, while NPAT totaled VND600 bn, +17% YoY. The performance was mainly driven by a 14% YoY increase in output to 5.5 bn kWh, alongside reductions in labor costs and depreciation expenses of 19% and 20% YoY, respectively. These factors offset an 18% YoY increase in raw material costs, which totaled VND7,389 bn.

QTP’s 9M2026 results were stronger than our estimates in the latest update report, primarily because Qc was higher than forecast and the commencement of the emissions treatment system project was postponed to 2027. For 2027F, we forecast NPAT of VND 562 bn, -21% YoY, as the plant is expected to suspend operations for two months to carry out the emissions upgrade. Accordingly, we set a 2027 target price of VND14,800/share, implying an expected total return of 39.7%, rating BUY.