HDG Flash Note – BUY

• HDG reported its Q3/2026 results, with NPAT of VND228 bn, -32% YoY. 9M2026 NPAT reached VND614 bn, +8% YoY, fulfilling 53% of the plan and 78% of our 2026 forecast.
• We maintain our earnings forecasts for HDG for 2026 (-21% YoY) and 2027 (+17% YoY). Accordingly, we assign a 2027 target price for HDG of VND24,000/share, implying an expected total return of 43.7%, rating BUY.

Q3/2026 results were weak due to lower hydropower output.

Revenue reached VND598 bn, -16% YoY. The decline was concentrated in the energy segment (VND465 bn, -19% YoY), mainly due to a 24% YoY fall in power output to 398 mil kWh, of which hydropower: 320 mil kWh, -30% YoY; wind power: 38 mil kWh, +31% YoY; solar power: 40 mil kWh, -7% YoY. The energy segment’s gross margin narrowed from 73% (Q3/2025) to 67% (Q3/2026). As a result, gross profit reached VND361 bn, -27% YoY. NPAT reached VND228 bn, -32% YoY.

9M2026: more positive, supported by real estate revenue

9M2026 business results were more positive, with revenue of VND1,773 bn, -7% YoY. Gross profit reached VND1,264 bn, +10% YoY, and NPAT reached VND614 bn, +8% YoY. Although energy revenue fell 12% YoY to VND1,353 bn, mainly due to a sharp decline in hydropower output (total output reached 971 mil kWh, -16% YoY, of which hydropower reached 732 mil kWh, -22% YoY), this was offset by revenue growth in office leasing (+13% YoY to VND280 bn) and hotel (+10% YoY to VND120 bn), as well as the VND177 bn reduction in cost of goods sold for the Charm Villas project following the Hanoi People’s Committee’s land price approval decision. The project continues to be offered for sale, but market conditions are currently quite challenging as interest rates have risen sharply over the recent period.

Quick conclusion: We maintain our 2026 and 2027 forecasts. Accordingly, we set a 2027 target price for HDG of VND24,000/share, implying an expected total return of 43.7%, rating BUY.