BCM Update – OUTPERFORM

INVESTMENT AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION (HSX: BCM)

Positive 2Q2025 and 1H2025 business results mainly thanks to higher revenue from the residential property segment. Adjust 2025 NPAT down by 6%, to VND2,953 bn as we adjusted industrial park revenue down by 49% and SG&A expenses down by 55%. Adjust YE2025 target price down by 14% to VND79,500/share to reflect impacts of the US tariff on the IP segment. Reiterate our Outperform rating.

BCM posted strong growth in 2Q2025 with revenue of VND2,524 bn (+117% YoY) and NPAT of VND1,468 bn (+272% YoY). The result in 1H2025 followed the same trend with revenue of VND4,372 bn (+122% YoY) and NPAT of VND1,833 bn (+351% YoY), completing 46% and 74% of targets, respectively.

The strong growth in 2Q2025 and 1H2025 business results was mainly driven by:

• The property segment’s revenue reached VND2,319 bn (+221% YoY) in 2Q2025 and VND3,746 bn (+221% YoY) in 1H2025 mainly from deliveries of residential land lots in Binh Duong New City and residential areas,
• Profit shared from associates and JVs (mainly from VSIP) grew by 32% YoY, to VND603 bn in 2Q2025 and 67% YoY, to VND874 bn in 1H2025, and
• SG&A expenses declined by 38% YoY, to VND338 bn in 2Q2025 and 18% YoY, to VND731 bn in 1H2025

After nearly 4 months of negotiation, the US agreed to reduce Vietnam tariff from 46% to a much more favourable rate of 20% which is in line with most ASEAN countries and lower than China, India, Laos and Myanmar. The main concern now is a 40% tariff on transhipped goods which the US government has not clearly defined. This uncertainty affected Vietnam’s ability to attract FDI and the leasing activities of the industrial park (IP) segment as some potential tenants reassess Vietnam’s cost advantage over neighbouring countries’ and delay their renting decisions. However, we think the overall risk has reduced since April, 2025 and Vietnam’s fundamental strengths (political stability, labour cost, electricity cost, number of signed FTA) are expected to continue to enhance its long-term FDI attractiveness.

The recent FDI data supports this mixed-but-positive outlook. In 7M2025, registered FDI remained strong with a 27.3% YoY growth, reaching USD24.09 bn. Disbursed FDI also posted an increase of 8.4% YoY, to USD13.6 bn. The manufacturing and processing industry continues to be the dominant recipient, accounting for 56% of total registered FDI and 81% of disbursed FDI.