DPM Flash Note – NEUTRAL

PetroVietnam Fertilizer and Chemicals Corp (DPM VN)

DPM announced Q2/2025 business results with NPAT of VND 413 billion (+75.5% YoY and +95.7% QoQ), exceeding our expectations. For 6M2025, NPAT increased by 24% YoY to VND624 billion, completing 195% of the company’s full-year plan and 75.5% of our pre-adjusted forecast. With low oil prices and benefits from the 5% VAT policy starting in July, we revise our full-year 2025 forecast with revenue of VND15,447 billion (+10.6% YoY) and NPAT of VND1,188 billion (+93% YoY), increasing by 22% and 41%, respectively, compared to our previous forecasts. Using the DCF method, we value DPM at VND 42,000 per share by the end of 2025. Rating NEUTRAL.

DPM announced Q2/2025 financial statements with revenue reaching VND5,301 billion (+34.2% YoY) and NPAT achieving VND413 billion (+75.5% YoY). Gross profit margin improved to 16.9% from 13.8% in the same period last year. Meanwhile, urea sales volume decreased by 12.5% YoY to 225 thousand tons due to weakened domestic demand, as Vietnamese rice prices fell to multi-year lows (the average rice export price in 6M2025 is estimated to drop by 18.4% YoY). As a result, revenue and profit growth were mainly driven by:

• An estimated 15% YoY increase in urea selling prices.
• A 26% YoY increase in NPK sales volume.
• Imported fertilizer sales revenue surged 114% YoY, with gross margin improving to 6.7% from 2.3% in the same period last year.
• Lower input gas prices, supported by a 19.7% YoY drop in Brent crude oil prices.

SG&A expenses rose by 34.3% YoY to VND 454 billion. However, the SG&A-to-revenue ratio remained flat YoY at 8.6%. For 6M2025, net revenue reached VND9,421 billion (+29.8% YoY) and NPAT was VND 624 billion (+24% YoY). The key drivers behind this performance were a 26% YoY increase in NPK sales volume and an estimated 9% YoY rise in average urea selling prices.

Outlook

For sales volume, DPM is expected to conduct its 12th major maintenance shutdown in Q4/2025 for 45 days, leading to an estimated 9% YoY decline in urea sales for the full year. However, due to the positive trend in urea prices during 6M2025, we revise our forecasted urea selling price up by 5% YoY. Although China resumed urea exports at the end of May 2025 with a quota of about 2 million tons for the May–October 2025 period, the impact is expected to be only mildly negative, as Chinese fertilizer producers are still subject to export quotas and cannot export freely.