GEG Flash Note – BUY

GEG announced Q1/2026 results, reporting VND767 bn in revenue, -31% YoY, VND264 bn, -57% YoY. These results fulfilled 69% of the company’s plan and 60% of ACBS’s forecast for 2026. The first quarter is typically GEG’s strongest quarter of the year due to favorable hydrological conditions. In addition, Q1/2026 earnings declined significantly because the company no longer recognized the nearly VND 400 bn retrospective profit from the Tan Phu Dong 1 (TPD1) project as in Q1/2025. Excluding this extraordinary item, core NPAT in Q1/2026 increased by 16% YoY. Accordingly, we forecast 2026 NPAT at VND441 bn, broadly stable with Q1/2025, and assign 2026’s target price of VND 18,400/share for GEG, implying a total expected return of 27.3%, rating BUY.

At the end of Q1/2026, GEG generated 362 mil kWh of output, +10% YoY. Output growth was recorded across all three sectors, including hydropower, wind power, and solar power. Hydropower output reached 51 mil kWh, +59% YoY; solar power output reached 102 mil kWh, +11% YoY; and wind power output reached 209 mil kWh, +2% YoY. As a result, revenue amounted to VND767 bn, -31% YoY, while the average electricity selling price reached VND2,119/kWh, -4% YoY. Gross profit amounted to VND487 bn, -41% YoY, and NPAT reached VND264 bn, -57% YoY. Excluding the retrospective profit from the TPD1, core revenue increased by 5% YoY and NPAT rose by 16% YoY.

For 2026, GEG has set a revenue target of VND3,107 bn, +4% YoY, and VND380 bn in NPAT, -16% YoY. The company also plans to distribute 2025 profits in the form of a 5% stock dividend. GEG aims to achieve commercial operation of the Duc Hue 2 solar power project by the end of Q2/2026 under the DPPA mechanism. However, the project’s electricity selling price is currently still under negotiation with counterparties.

Quick conclusion: We view GEG’s Q1/2026 financial performance as relatively positive, completing 69% of the company plan and 60% of our forecast for 2026. We assign 2026 target price for GEG at VND 18,400/share, implying a total expected return of 27.3%, rating BUY.