GEG Flash Note – BUY

• GEG reported strong Q3/2026 resuts, with NPAT of VND100 bn, +25% YoY. In 9M2026, revenue reached VND2,408 bn, -14% YoY, and VND372 bn in NPAT, -56% YoY, fulfilling 98% of the company’s plan and 70% of ACBS 2026 forecast.
• We maintain our forecasts for 2026 & 2027. Accordingly, 2026 core NPAT is expected to grow 32% YoY and 2027 NPAT to grow 43% YoY. Our 2027 target price for GEG is VND17,500/share, implying an expected total return of 51.5%, rating BUY.

Positive Q3/2026 results, revenue reached VND722 bn, +8% YoY, driven by higher electricity selling prices:

• Output reached 373 mil kWh, -5% YoY. Of which, hydropower fell sharply to 92 mil kWh, -36% YoY, due to the El Nino effect. Solar output reached 114 mil kWh, +20% YoY (partly thanks to the contribution from the Duc Hue 2 solar project, which reached COD in Q2/2026), and wind power reached 167 mil kWh, +10% YoY.
• The average electricity selling price was 13% higher YoY, mainly driven by a larger contribution from solar and wind power, which command higher selling prices than hydropower. NPAT reached VND100 bn, +25% YoY.

9M2026:

Total output declined slightly by 1% YoY to 997 mil kWh. Of which, hydropower: 167 mil kWh, -24% YoY; wind power: 489 mil kWh, +1% YoY; solar: 333 mil kWh, +13% YoY. Revenue reached VND2,068 bn, -14% YoY, and NPAT reached VND372 bn, -56% YoY. 9M2026 NPAT fell 56% YoY as GEG no longer recognized the VND144 bn gain from the divestment of Truong Phu Hydropower JSC and the VND400 bn retroactive profit from the Tan Phu Dong 1 project. Excluding these one-off gains, 9M2026 core NPAT increased 22% YoY (partly thanks to the additional contribution from the Duc Hue 2 solar project, which reached COD in Q2/2026).

Quick conclusion: GEG’s 9M2026 results were positive, partly supported by the contribution from the Duc Hue 2 solar project, which came into operation in Q2/2026, and a higher share of wind and solar power offsetting lower hydropower output. This resulted in higher revenue and YoY growth in core NPAT.