GEG Update – BUY

GEG reported Q4/2025 results with revenue of VND590 bn, +6% YoY, NPAT reached VND95 bn, +692% YoY. For 2025, NPAT amounted to VND946 bn, +927% YoY, equivalent to 138% of the Company’s plan and 105% of ACBS’s forecast. The strong 2025 performance was primarily driven by a significant increase in average electricity selling prices (ASP), following GEG’s successful negotiation of official power purchase agreement (PPA) prices for several wind power projects, most notably Tan Phu Dong 1 (TPD1, 100 MW). However, we expect less favorable reported earnings in 2026, as GEG will no longer record non-recurring income of VND497 bn, which in 2025 arose from the retrospective revenue adjustment of TPD1 and the divestment of Truong Phu Hydropower JSC. Accordingly, we forecast revenue to decline by 5% YoY and NPAT to fall by 41% YoY in 2026, despite core earnings growing by 24% YoY. We maintain a target price of VND 18,400/share for 2026, implying a total expected return of 23.3%, rating BUY.

By Q4/2025, GEG generated 344 mil kWh, +3% YoY, mainly driven by higher hydropower output (154 mil kWh, +20% YoY), which offset declines in solar power (66 mil kWh, -13% YoY) and wind power (124 mil kWh, -5% YoY). The ASP increased 3% YoY to VND 1,713/kWh, supported by the finalized pricing for the TPD1 wind project. Consequently, revenue reached VND590 bn, +6% YoY. GEG also reversed VND37 bn of provisions for doubtful receivables during the quarter, contributing to a 42% YoY increase in gross profit, which reached VND292 bn. As a result, NPAT rose to VND95 bn, +692% YoY, and NPAT’s margin expanded from 2% in Q4/2024 to 16%.

For 2025, total output reached 1.3 bn kWh, broadly flat YoY. Revenue increased to VND2,998 bn, +29% YoY, primarily due to a 30% YoY increase in ASP, which averaged VND2,236/kWh, following the successful PPA price negotiation and retrospective revenue recognition for TPD1 in Q1/2025. Gross profit amounted to VND1,713 bn, +60% YoY, while NPAT surged to VND946 bn, +927% YoY.