Macro Update – December 2025: A RESILIENT REBOUND

Economic indicators for December 2025 depict a broad-based recovery underpinned by synchronized domestic growth engines. The resurgence in consumption and manufacturing, coupled with accelerated public investment disbursement and credit expansion, has established a robust foundation to target 10% GDP growth in 2026, even amidst persistent external uncertainties.

1.GDP growth accelerated in 4Q2025, registering a record high of 8.46% YoY, which propelled full-year FY2025 growth to 8.02%, successfully fulfilling the Prime Minister’s mandate. The primary drivers in the fourth quarter stemmed from the distinct improvement in industrial manufacturing and consumption activities during December.

2.Retail sales picked up momentum in December, spearheaded by improvements in goods retailing (+3.8% MoM) and a surge in tourism activity (+5.3% MoM).

3.The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) sustained its upward trajectory, supported by automotive and food manufacturing, while sectors facing tariff headwinds—such as textiles and footwear—exhibited signs of recovery.

4.Export activity accelerated in December, predominantly driven by the FDI sector, which recorded growth of 38.4% YoY (accelerating from +28.8% YoY in Nov); conversely, export value from the domestic sector contracted by 10.1% YoY.

5.FDI inflows remained stable, bolstered by capital expansion from existing enterprises. As of December 31, 2025, total registered FDI into Vietnam reached US$38.42bn (+0.5% YoY). Disbursed FDI capital amounted to approximately US$27.6bn (+9% YoY).

6.Public investment disbursement continued to be expedited; as of December 25, total disbursed capital reached VND635.6tn, fulfilling 69.6% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister.

In December, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) maintained an accommodative monetary stance with a neutral interest rate environment, while regulating interbank liquidity through open market operations (OMO) and new instruments; a notable measure included executing USD-VND swap transactions to support year-end liquidity.

1.Inflationary pressures subsided in December, balanced by deflationary effects from petrol prices against the upward momentum in food prices (+5.2% YoY) and dining services (+4.2% YoY).

2.Credit growth reached 17.87% YTD as of December 24, whereas deposit growth stood at approximately 14.1%.

3.High-interest rate environment continued to enhance the attractiveness of holding domestic currency: USD/VND exchange rate cooled significantly in December across both commercial banks and the free market, declining by 0.13% and 3.28% MoM, respectively.