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Macro Update – September 2026: PRODUCTION AND INVESTMENT LEAD GROWTH IN A HIGH-INTEREST-RATE ENVIRONMENT
08/10/2026 - 5:16:00 CH- September data reinforce August’s macro picture, with production and investment leading growth. GDP grew 9.95% YoY in 3Q26, taking nine-month growth to 9.01%. Public investment and realized FDI continue to support construction, equipment installation and industrial activity, while consumption is recovering more slowly.
- The trade balance returned to a US$1.27bn surplus in September after the deficit narrowed sharply in August. Electronics, machinery and phones accounted for 77.7% of the nine-month increase in export value; apparel and footwear grew slowly. PMI fell from 53.3 to 51.9, with export orders and employment declining again, indicating that the output expansion has not benefited manufacturers equally.
- Consumption showed positive signs, with price-adjusted retail sales growing 7.8% in 9M26, versus 7.2% a year earlier. Rising worker incomes and international arrivals both support service spending. Weak manufacturing hiring nevertheless continues to constrain the outlook for household income and purchasing power.
- Fuel-price pressure persisted into September, lifting CPI by 0.62% MoM, while core CPI rose only 0.11%. Extending fuel-tax relief through December removed the expiry risk identified in our previous report. International fuel prices remain a source of pressure on transport and production costs.
- High funding costs continue to limit room to reduce lending rates. Bank bond issuance coupons rose to 8.84% in 3Q26, while nine-month issuance fell 27.8%. Circular 50, Circular 138 and Decision 1809 continue to adjust funding, lending and access to finance. Reuters estimates planned bank share sales at nearly US$7bn by end-2027, providing a potential equity-capital channel to sustain credit growth.
