NLG Update – BUY

4Q2025 and 2025 results were in line with ACBS’s projections. Sales value in 4Q2025 and 2025 reached historical peaks. We maintain our 2026 projections but adjust our end-of-2026 target price down by 13% to VND 40,800/share due to a 5-10% reduction in the absorption rate of new projects amidst rising interest rates and tighter credit controls for the real estate sector. We maintain our Buy recommendation because the share price has fallen by more than 30% since our November 2025 update report, and NLG is a company with a sound financial position, clear project legal status, and provides products that meet the real housing needs of the people.

Nam Long announced a decline in 4Q2025 business results with revenue reaching VND1,704 bn (-73% YoY) and NPATMI reaching VND348 bn (-31% YoY). A decline was mainly due to a lower number of units delivered (556 units were delivered in 4Q2025, mainly at the Southgate and Nam Long Central Lake projects, compared to 1,705 units delivered in 4Q2024, mainly at the Akari project).

In 4Q2025, NLG recorded VND489 bn in PBT from the transfer of 15% of its shares in the Izumi project to Tokyu Corp and VND357 bn in relocation support costs for residents in this project. From November 2025 onwards, NLG will no longer consolidate the revenue and cost of goods sold for the Izumi project, but will record the profit under the ‘Profit from joint ventures and associates’ account, as the company’s ownership in this project decreased to 50% after the aforementioned capital transfer transaction.

For the whole year 2025, NLG achieved revenue of VND5,645 bn (-22% YoY) and NPATMI of VND701 bn (+35% YoY), completing 100% of the profit plan and 98% of the projection.

Sales value in 4Q2025 reached a historical peak of VND6,851 bn, four times higher than the previous quarter and the same period last year, thanks to the launch of two new projects, Elyse Island and An Zen Hai Phong, and the launch of the next phases of existing projects: Izumi, Southgate, Mizuki, and Nam Long Central Lake. For 2025, NLG achieved its highest sales value of VND11,855 bn (+128% YoY), completing 81% of the plan and 106% of the projection. NLG may set a ambitous sales value for 2026 at VND24 trn, two times higher than the previous year. From conservative perspective, we forecast that the company completes nearly 70% of the sales value target, equivalent to over VND16 trn.

The company’s financial situation improved significantly in 4Q2025 thanks to VND2,500 bn from the issuance of over 100 mn shares to existing shareholders at VND25,000/share and VND489 bn in PBT from the transfer of 15% of shares in the Izumi project. NLG shifted from a net debt balance of VND3,121 bn in 3Q2025 to a net cash balance of VND2,645 bn in 4Q2025. The Net cash/Equity ratio reached 17.8% at the end of 2025.

The company is expanding its land bank by acquiring small and medium-sized land plots in provinces such as Ha Long, Hai Phong, Vung Tau, and Dong Nai. In particular, NLG is close to completing the acquisition of a project in Ha Long to develop its Ehome apartment product with expected selling price of VND2-3 bn/unit.