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2026 OUTLOOK: FLUCTUATIONS BASED ON WARTIME SCENARIOS
Under the scenario where tensions de-escalate, we assess that Petrolimex has positive prospects in 2026 driven by: (1) Government directives and proposals for a new petroleum pricing mechanism, (2) predicted 8% annual growth in petroleum demand, (3) opportunities from the nationwide implementation of E10 biofuel, and (4) geopolitical tensions/wars causing short-term spikes in selling prices of gasoline and oil. We expect PLX to achieve positive revenue and profit growth in Q1 2026 due to the higher fuel retail prices in March 2026.
For 2026, under a scenario where tensions de-escalate, we forecast revenue to reach VND 353,526 billion (+14.1% yoy) and NPAT to be VND 3,688 billion (+21.4% yoy).
Using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation method, we determine a target price for PLX by the end of 2026 at VND 49,600 per share. This represents an upside potential of 25.5% from the current price. Rating: BUY.
