POW Flash Note – BUY

POW announced Q1/2026 results, reporting VND12,327 bn in revenue, +51% YoY, and VND1,301 in NPAT, +176% YoY, fulfilling 116% of the companyplan and 51% of our forecast for 2026. The strong Q1/2026 performance was primarily driven by both higher output and improved average selling prices (ASP). Specifically, total output +33% YoY, largely attributable to gas-fired power plants as contracted output (Qc) rose significantly, while ASP increased by 5% YoY. We revise our 2026 NPAT forecast upward to VND3,025 bn, +19% compared to our previous forecast, mainly due to lower estimated depreciation expenses relative to the company’s actual recorded figures. Accordingly, we assign a target price for POW in 2026 of VND17,100/share, implying a total expected return of 22.8%, rating BUY.

By Q1/2026, POW generated 5.6 bn kWh, +33% YoY, while ASP increased by 5% YoY to VND2,105/kWh. Consequently, revenue reached VND12,327 bn, +51% YoY. Output rose substantially across gas-fired power plants, with NT1 recording 297 mil kWh, +156% YoY, NT2 generating 945 mil kWh, up 60% YoY, and NT3&4 contributing 874 mil kWh, compared to no commercial output in Q1/2025. This growth was mainly driven by higher Qc. Gross profit reached VND1,804 bn, +121% YoY,  and VND1,301 bn in NPAT, +176% YoY. Gross profit margin improved to 11% from 6% in Q1/2025.

POW has also announced Q2/2026’s performance plan, targeting output of 6.5 bn kWh, +38% YoY. Revenue and NPAT are projected at VND14,900 bn and VND570 bn, respectively, +58% and -25% YoY.

Quick conclusion: POW delivered strong Q1/2026 performance, completing 116% of its plan and 51% of our previous 2026 forecast. We believe POW might face difficulties sustaining Q1/2026 earnings momentum in the remaining quarters due to scheduled maintenance shutdowns. Nevertheless, we have also revised down our depreciation expense assumptions for the year. As a result, we raise our 2026 NPAT forecast to VND3,025 bn, +19% compared to our previous estimate, and assign our target price for POW at VND17,100/share, implying a total expected return of 22.8%, rating BUY.