QTP Flash News – OUTPERFORM

QTP released its Q2/2025’s result with VND2,912 bn in revenue, -21.1% yoy, gross profit +26.5% YoY to VND267 bn, and NPAT +18.0% yoy to VND190 bn. For the 1H2025,QTP has achieved 79% of its plan and 82% of ACBS’s forecast for 2025. The NPAT growth is primarily attributed to a -25.3% yoy in COGS during Q2/2025, which effectively offset the modest -1.9% yoy in output volume and a -19.5% yoy in selling prices. We maintain an Outperform recommendation for QTP, with a target price of VND14,600/share, representing a total expected return of 18.3%.

Output for Q2/2025 reached 2.0 bn kWh, -1.9% yoy. This reduction in output, combined with -19.5% yoy in the average selling price (VND1,442/kWh), led to a -21.1% in revenue. The pricing pressure is a result of the decline in the Full Market Price (FMP) within the competitive electricity market, where Q2/2025 average FMP reached VND1,317/kWh, -9.0% yoy. Despite the revenue challenges, gross profit +26.5% yoy to VND267 bn. This improvement also led to a significant enhancement in the gross margin, rising from 5.8% to 9.3%. This margin expansion was largely driven by substantial cost savings, predominantly from -25.3% yoy in raw material costs (coal), to VND2,248 bn. As a result, NPAT achieved VND190 bn, +18.0% yoy, with NPAT’s margin improving to 6.6% from 4.4%. Cumulative 6M2025, output reached 3.8 bn kWh, -1.0% yoy, and VND6,638 bn, -13.0% yoy. However, NPAT was at VND388 bn, -6.4%yoy, with NPAT’s margin improving from 5.8% to 6.3%.

Quick conclusion: 1H2025 results are favorable when compared to the company’s targets and our projections. Nevertheless, we maintain a cautious forecasts and valuation for QTP, due to historical trend where Q3 typically represents the least favorable quarter for thermal power, primarily due to the peak rainy season. During this period, plants often undergo scheduled maintenance shutdowns, leading to increased costs and potentially negative results, which can offset the strong performance has been observed.