IDC Update – BUY

3Q2026 and 9M2026 business results were unfavorable, primarily due to a lower handed-over industrial park (IP) land area. However, we believe that 4Q2026 results will recover and grow both QoQ and YoY as the company accelerates handovers at its existing IPs. Therefore, we maintain our 2026 forecast. We roll over our target price to the end of 2027 at VND43,900/share and maintain a BUY rating, expecting IDC to achieve double-digit growth in 2027. This growth will be driven by the revenue recognition from two new IPs (Tan Phuoc 1 and Vinh Quang) and a recovery in IP leasing activities fueled by increased public investment and FDI promotion policies, such as Resolution 10 on the economic development of foreign-invested enterprises and the amended Investment Law.

IDC recorded disappointing 3Q2026 business results, with revenue of VND2,076 bn (-28% YoY) and PBT of VND674 bn (-45% YoY). The 9M2026 performance also declined, with revenue of VND5,832 bn (-9% YoY) and PBT of VND1,927 bn (-15% YoY), completing 66% of its profit target and 64% of our forecast. The primary reason was the low handed-over area of IPs and residential properties in 9M2026, which led to an 11% YoY decrease in IP revenue to VND2,320 bn and an 85% YoY plunge in properties revenue to VND50 bn.

However, we expect 4Q2026 performance to recover, with estimated revenue of over VND3,100 bn (+46% YoY) and estimated PBT exceeding VND1,000 bn (+64% YoY) as the company accelerates handovers at existing IP projects, including Phu My 2, Phu My 2 Expansion, Huu Thanh, Que Vo, and Cau Nghin. For the full year of 2026, we project the company will hand over a total of ~62 ha (-34% YoY) and record IP leasing revenue of VND3,218 bn (-7% YoY).

In 9M2026, we estimate IDC leased out around 95 ha (+71% YoY), completing 95% of its full-year plan; 3Q2026 alone saw about 52 ha signed, nearly 7 times higher YoY. During 9M2026, IDC secured a major 34-ha contract at Phu My 2 IP and a total of 41-ha MOU at Tan Phuoc 1 IP as construction of this IP commenced in mid-September 2026. The contracts signed in 9M2026 were primarily for IPs in the southern region, predominantly with Chinese auto parts and components manufacturers. Site clearance at Vinh Quang IP has been completed and land leveling is underway, with leasing contracts expected to be signed starting in 4Q2026 and handovers beginning in 1Q2027. We estimate IDC will exceed its 100-ha leasing target for this year by approximately 20%.

The power segment continued its stable growth. Power revenue increased by 3% YoY to VND2,869 bn in 9M2026, largely due to higher distributed power volume within the IPs, while distributed power prices remained flat YoY. Meanwhile, adverse weather conditions caused a YoY drop in output at the Dak Mi 3 and Shrok Phu Mieng hydropower plants, pulling the segment’s gross margin down from 10.8% to 8.6%.

For 2027, we project IDC will achieve double-digit growth, with estimated revenue of VND10,316 bn (+17% YoY) and PBT of VND3,345 bn (+15% YoY), driven primarily by the commencement of revenue recognition from the two new IPs, Tan Phuoc 1 and Vinh Quang.

Link to the full report: IDC_Update_2.11.2026