Nhon Trach 2 Thermal Power JSC (HoSE: NT2)

NT2 announced positive Q3/2025 results, wiht VND1,928 bn in revenue, +12.6% YoY, VND204 bn in gross profit, +240% YoY, and VND214 bn in NPAT, 386% YoY. Cumulatively 9M 2025, NPAT reached VND577 bn, a 72-fold increase YoY. This result achieves 207% of the 2025 company target and 211% of ACBS’s forecast.  The positive performance was driven by strong YoY growth in both production volume and selling prices. We are revising our 2025 NPAT forecast upward by 179% compared to the previous projection; therefore, issuing new target price for NT2 to VND21,700/share by 2026, representing an expected total return of 6.1%, rating NEUTRAL.

Q3/2025 revenue increased by 12.6% YoY to VND1,928 bn, attributable to growth in both production volume and prices. Specifically, production volume reached 792 mil kWh, +6.6% YoY, and the average selling price (ASP) rose to VND2,434/kWh, +5.6% YoY. As a result, gross profit reached VND204 bn, +240% YoY, with the gross margin improving to 10.6% from 3.5% YoY. NPAT reached VND214 bn, a nearly 5-fold increase YoY, and NPAT’s margin expanded from 2.6% to 11.1%.

This favorable performance was partially supported by the ENSO cycle, which transitioned to a brief La Niña phase early in the year before shifting to a Neutral phase that persisted through Q3/2025. This pattern limited output from hydropower plants, compelling EVN (Electricity of Vietnam) to increase dispatch from gas-fired power plants to compensate for the shortfall. Looking ahead, forecasts indicate a 56% probability of a weak La Niña phase emerging in Q4/2025, followed by a return to a Neutral phase. This outlook is expected to maintain a competitive advantage for thermal power producers, such as NT2, relative to hydropower facilities.

For 9M/2025, output reached 2.2 bn kWh, 12.2% YoY, and revenue totaled VND5,436 bn, +31% YoY. Gross profit stood at VND615 bn, a recovery from a loss of VND37 bn YoY. NPAT reached VND577 bn, a 72-fold increase YoY, and NPAT’s margin expanded to 10.6% from 0.2% in 9M 2024.

Quick Conclusion: NT2 post strong business results in 9M/2025, fulfilling 207% of its plan and 211% of ACBS’s 2025 forecast. After reassessing the factors influencing NT2’s performance, we are issuing a new target price of VND21,700/share, rating NEUTRAL, based on the expectation that favorable business conditions for NT2 will persist through Q4/2025.