QTP Update – OUTPERFORM

QTP announced Q4/2025 results with VND2,953 bn in revenue, +2% YoY, and VND655 bn in NPAT, +323% YoY. For 2025, NPAT reached VND1,051 bn, +70% YoY, equivalent to 228% of the company’s plan and 238% of ACBS’s forecast. The strong earnings were primarily driven by a sharper decline in coal input costs compared with the reduction in electricity average selling prices (ASP) and output, which significantly improved overall profit margins. In addition, QTP recognized VND663 bn in foreign exchange gains in Q4/2025. Based on these results, we revise our target price for QTP to VND14,500/share, implying a total expected return of 19.4%, rating Outperform.

By Q4/2025, QTP recorded output of 1.6 bn kWh, broadly flat YoY, while the ASP declined by 21% YoY to VND1,418/kWh. However, fuel input costs fell by 32% YoY, and the company recorded VND663 bn in foreign exchange income. As a result, revenue reached VND2,953 bn, +2% YoY, gross profit surged to VND955 bn, +346% YoY, and NPAT increased to VND655 bn, +323% YoY.

For 2025, revenue amounted to VND10,785 bn, -9% YoY, mainly due to a 12% decline in ASP and a 3% contraction in output. Nevertheless, gross profit rose sharply to VND1,525 bn, +86% YoY, while NPAT reached VND1,051 bn, +70% YoY, supported by the foreign exchange gains recognized in Q4/2025. Consequently, the NPAT’s margin improved to 10%, compared with 5% in 2024.

Quick conclusion: QTP delivered a strong 2025 result, completing 228% of its plan and 238% of ACBS’s forecast. Excluding foreign exchange income, 2025 NPAT would have reached VND457 bn, equivalent to 99% of the company’s plan and 103% of ACBS’s forecast. Supported by foreign exchange gains, we believe QTP has room to increase its cash dividend payout ratio in the future, which would enhance the stock’s attractiveness. Accordingly, we revise our target price for QTP to VND14,500/share, implying a total expected return of 19.4%, rating Outperform.