SAIGON CARGO SERVICE CORPORATION (SCS)

SCS announced Q2/2025 business results with revenue of VND 292 bn (+10.5% YoY), gross profit of VND 233 bn (+9.7% YoY) and gross profit margin at 80% (flat compared to Q2/2024). Profit before tax (PBT) in Q2/2025 reached VND 236 bn, up 10.7% YoY. However, net profit after tax (NPAT) attributable to the parent company remained flat YoY, at VND 189 bn. The reason is that SCS is no longer subject to the 10% preferential corporate income tax rate starting in 2025. For 6M2025, the company’s NPAT reached VND 359 bn (+6.5% YoY), fulfilling 53.5% of ACBS’s full-year forecast. We maintain our revenue forecast in line with the latest report, but revise down our 2025 NPAT forecast by 7%. Accordingly, revenue is projected at VND 1,052 bn (+1.5% YoY) and NPAT at VND 671 bn (-3.2% YoY). Based on the discounted cash flow method, we value SCS at VND 70,500 per share by the end of 2025, rating Outperform.

According to the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam, the total air cargo volume nationwide in 6M2025 reached 696 thousand tons (+14.6% YoY). Of which, international cargo was 580 thousand tons (+17.7% YoY), and domestic cargo was 116 thousand tons (+1.3% YoY).

However, total cargo volume handled by SCS in 6M2025 reached 131.4 thousand tons, up 2% YoY. International cargo volume was 103.8 thousand tons (+8.5% YoY), while domestic cargo was 27.6 thousand tons (-16.7% YoY). SCS’s growth was slower than the market average, as the company’s passenger airline customer—Vietjet—has been gradually reducing reliance on its ground handling services.

Outlook

SCS’s growth during the 2025–2026 period and in the medium term is not significantly affected by tariff-related factors, as cargo bound for the U.S. only accounts for 15% of total throughput. Instead, the growth outlook is primarily influenced by industry-wide structural changes, including: (1) the end of the 10% corporate income tax incentive, (2) capacity limitations and the expansion project at Tan Son Nhat Airport, and (3) a shift in industry structure as Long Thanh Airport enters operation. These are the key factors likely to impact SCS’s overall growth momentum in the medium term.