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TLG is known as the leading stationery manufacturer in Vietnam with a diversified product mix and distribution network. The domestic market dominates the company’s revenue breakdown while expansion to exports has been and will likely be its growth driver. We project the company’s net revenue and EAT may grow at a CAGR of 9.1% and 12.1%, respectively, in 2025-2028F. For 2026F, net revenue and EAT are projected at VND4,560bn (+9.3% YoY) and VND514n (+14.3% YoY), respectively. Our target price for the stock is VND61,200/shr by YE2026. BUY.
TLG is well positioned in Vietnam’s stationery market with a 60% market share (the company’s estimate) and an extensive distribution network. Besides the domestic market, the company also boosts its footprint in the international playground.
Writing instruments are the most crucial category making more than 40% of the company’s top line, followed by office supplies, art supplies, school supplies and others. Looking forward, the company expects i) gel pens and markers and ii) art supplies, lifestyle school supplies, scientific calculators to outperform the remainders.
Expansion to overseas markets facilitates growth. While the domestic market captures 72% of its net revenue, TLG’s exports have expanded markedly – from 18% of net revenue in 2020 to 28% in 2025 – and outstripped the former in terms of growth. Asia is the company’s largest exports region.
Net revenue climbed by 11.1% YoY in 2025, comprising 8.8% and 17.1% YoY growth in domestic and overseas markets, respectively. However, the overall EAT fell by 2.2% YoY, largely attributed to a hike in selling expenses for strengthening distribution system and propelling consumption.
The Kokuyo acquisition may mark TLG’s strategic shift from a long-established family-run business to a subsidiary of a global corporate. On Dec 4th 2025, the Japanese stationery giant Kokuyo Co., Ltd. announced to potentially acquire up to 65.01% stake in TLG via two phases, with a total value of approximately JPY27.6bn (~VND4,700bn). TLG share price in each phase is not disclosed, though some estimate the average price at VND82,000 per share (corresponding to c.VND75,000 per share after reflecting the stock dividend of 10% in Dec 11th, 2025), representing a premium of 25%-28% over TLG’s market price at the time of announcement.
Financials look good with a low-debt profile (net debt to equity ratio of -18.4%, denoting a net cash status), positive operating cash flow, ROE of 18.5% and dividend yield of ~5%.
In 2026, we project the company’s net revenue and EAT at VND4,560bn (+9.3% YoY) and VND514bn (+14.3% YoY).
