VRE Update – OUTPERFORM

Significant growth in 4Q2025 profit was mainly thanks to the recognition of the share transfer transaction at Vincom Center Nguyen Chi Thanh. Full-year 2025 business results are in line with our projections. Our 2026 NPAT forecast has been revised down by 10%, while the target price for YE2026 was reduced by 7% to VND 36,000/share due to the postponement of the launch and handover of two commercial townhouse projects at Vinhomes Golden Avenue and Vinhomes Royal Island from 2026 to 2027. Reiterate our Outperform recommendation.

VRE announced positive 4Q2025 business results with revenue reaching VND2,312 bn (+9% YoY) and NPAT reaching VND2,659 bn (+145% YoY). Profit growth primarily stemmed from financial revenue of VND1,891 bn from the transfer of the entire 99.99% stake in Vincom NCT Real Estate Company Limited – the owner of Vincom Center Nguyen Chi Thanh in Hanoi.

The full-year 2025 business results are in line with ACBS’s projections. Revenue in 2025 reached VND8,837 bn (-1% YoY) and NPAT reached VND6,446 bn (+57% YoY), achieving 137% of the profit target and 97% of ACBS’s projections. Revenue remained flat due to the stable growth in the property leasing segment, while the property sales segment declined sharply as shophouse projects were nearing completion. Profit growth was mainly driven by financial revenue (primarily from the profit from the transfer of Vincom Center Nguyen Chi Thanh shares and interest income from deposits). Those of which increased nearly four times YoY, reaching VND3,687 bn.

The real estate leasing segment grew steadily in 2025 with revenue reaching VND8,399 bn (+7% YoY) and a flat gross profit margin of 55%. The average occupancy rate of shopping malls improved to 88.1% in 4Q2025, up from 85.4% in 4Q2024. Vincom Plaza Vinh was launched on December 19, 2025, bringing the total number of shopping malls to 90 by the end of 2025 with a total retail GFA of over 1.9 mn sqm.

In 2026, VRE plans to open a new shopping mall, Vincom Plaza Wonder Park, with a retail floor area of approximately 27,000 sqm. In addition, the company plans to launch a new product type called Vincom Collection. This is a commercial townhouse model within large urban areas, developed on 70 land plots with a total area of nearly 300 ha. Due to a lack of detailed information, we have not yet reflected this new product in our valuation model.

The company postponed the launch and handover of two commercial townhouse projects at Vinhomes Golden Avenue (approximately 280 units with a total investment of VND1.3 trn) and Vinhomes Royal Island (approximately 1,000 units with a total investment of VND4.8 trn) from 2026 to 2027. Therefore, we adjusted down our projected 2026 property sales to VND72 bn (-58% YoY). Total revenue for 2026 is adjusted down by 25% to VND9,059 bn (+3% YoY) and NPAT down by 10% to VND5,433 bn (-16% YoY). We adjusted the target price at the end of 2026 down by 7% to VND36,000/share and reiterate our Outperform recommendation.