Individual Clients
Corporate Clients
Update VIB – Outperform
03/11/2026 - 4:08:48 CHVIETNAM INTERNATIONAL JSC BANK (VIB)
We cut our 1-year target price by 4.6% to VND16,000/share due to (1) a lower target P/E of 6.5x from 7.0x as the earnings recovery is slower than previously expected and (2) a 3.6% cut in our 2026F PBT forecast to VND10,076 bn (+10.7% y/y) on higher provisioning costs, partly offset by (3) rolling our valuation forward to Oct-2027. 9M2026 PBT reached VND7,592 bn (+7.7% y/y), completing 66% of the AGM target and 73% of our forecast.
3Q26 PBT reached VND2,406 bn, up 18.5% y/y and 1.0% q/q. Pre-provision profit rose 35% y/y on TOI growth of 21.8% y/y and a 1.3% y/y decline in operating expenses (CIR fell to 29.4%), but most of the gain was absorbed by provisioning costs, which jumped 64% y/y to VND1,899 bn.
Credit growth improved (+3.6% q/q, +7.7% YTD), driven mainly by corporate lending (+8.5% q/q), while retail lending rose only 1.0%. We maintain our credit growth assumptions of +12% for 2026F and +15% for 2027F.
NIM rose to 3.45% (+22 bps q/q), the highest since 4Q24, as loan yields repriced faster than the slowing rise in deposit rates. The SBV-directed cuts of 0.5% in deposit rates and 1.5-2.0% in lending rates had almost no impact on NIM given the limited size of the preferential lending package. We forecast NIM of 3.25% in 2026F (flat y/y) and 3.39% (+14bps y/y) in 2027F.
NFI rose 58% y/y to VND1,320 bn as net fee income doubled y/y, driven by bancassurance (+70% y/y) and recoveries of written-off loans (+61% y/y). The FX business still posted a loss of VND368 bn, mainly from currency swap costs attached to foreign-currency borrowings; as this loss is recurring, we assume an FX loss of VND1,200 bn in 2027F.
Asset quality deteriorated. Overdue loan formation rose to 1.06% per quarter, double the historical average, pushing the NPL ratio up to 3.20% and the Group 2 loan ratio to 2.79%; NPL coverage fell to 41.8%. We raise our credit cost assumption to 1.50% for both 2026F (from 1.30%) and 2027F.
We lower our target P/E from 7.0x to 6.5x as the earnings recovery is slower than previously expected. Accordingly, our 1y target price is VND16,000/share.
